Interactive effect of temperature and air pollutants on years of life lost due to lung cancer among residents in Hexi district of Tianjin city
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摘要:
目的 探讨大气污染物与温度对天津市河西区人群肺癌早死寿命损失年(YLL)的交互作用,为肺癌死亡影响因素研究提供参考依据。 方法 收集天津市河西区人群2015年1月1日 — 2017年12月31日的肺癌死亡相关数据及2015 — 2017年天津市河西区空气质量监测点环保监测数据和天津市气象数据,应用分布滞后非线性模型建立双变量响应面模型及单污染物和多污染物温度交互模型,分析大气污染物与温度对天津市河西区人群肺癌YLL的交互作用。 结果 相对于参考温度16.3 ℃,高温(34 ℃)和低温(– 13 ℃)分别使天津市河西区人群每日肺癌YLL上升1.12 %(95 % CI = 0.58 %~2.16 %)和1.49 %(95 % CI = 0.16 %~14.25 %);细颗粒物(PM2.5)、二氧化氮(NO2)、一氧化碳(CO)、臭氧(O3)-1 h和O3-8 h可分别导致天津市河西区人群肺癌YLL上升1.00 %(95 % CI = 0.98 %~1.03 %)、1.01 %(95 % CI = 0.95 %~1.08 %)、1.01 %(95 % CI = 0.99 %~1.03 %)、1.03 %(95 % CI = 0.98 %~1.09 %)和1.03 %(95 % CI = 0.98 %~1.09 %);且在低温时,每升高10 μg/m3的PM2.5和NO2可分别导致天津市河西区人群肺癌YLL上升4.14 %(95 % CI = 0.55 %~7.85 %和5.44 %(95 % CI = – 4.80 %~16.78 %)。 结论 高温和低温以及PM2.5、NO2、CO、O3-1h和O3-8 h均能增加每日肺癌YLL,且低温时PM2.5和NO2对每日肺癌YLL影响的效应较强。 -
关键词:
- 肺癌 /
- 早死寿命损失年(YLL) /
- 大气污染物 /
- 温度 /
- 交互作用
Abstract:Objective To explore interactive effect of air pollutants and temperature on years of life lost (YLL) due to lung cancer and to provide references for studies on impacts of lung cancer mortality. Methods We collected data of Hexi district on lung cancer mortality in the residents, air pollutants monitoring, and meteorology observation during the period from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2017. Bivariate response surface model, uni- and multi-pollutant and temperature interactive model were established using non-linear lag distribution to analyze the interactive effect of air pollutants and temperature on lung cancer-related YLL in the population of the district. Results Relative to the reference temperature of 16.3 ℃, high temperature (34 ℃) and low temperature (– 13 ℃) increased YLL of lung cancer by 1.12% (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.58% – 2.16%) and 1.49% (95% CI: 0.16% – 14.25%). Particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), carbon monoxide (CO), one-hour average ozone (O3-1h), and eight-hour average ozone (O3-8h) could increase YLL of lung cancer by 1.00% (95% CI: 0.98% – 1.03%), 1.01% (95% CI: 0.95% – 1.08%), 1.01% (95% CI: 0.99% – 1.03%), 1.03% (95% CI: 0.98% – 1.09%), and 1.03% (95% CI: 0.98% – 1.09%), respectively. Under the low temperature, a 10 μg/m3 increment in PM2.5 and NO2 could increase the YLL of lung cancer by 4.14% (95% CI:0.55% – 7.85%) and 5.44% (95% CI: – 4.80% – 16.78%). Conclusion High and low temperature, PM2.5, NO2, CO, O3-1h and O3-8h can all increase daily YLL of lung cancer in an exposed population and the effect of PM2.5 and NO2 are stronger under low temperature. -
Key words:
- lung cancer /
- years of life lost /
- air pollutant /
- temperature /
- interaction
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表 1 天津市河西区2015 — 2017年因肺癌每日死亡数、YLL、大气污染物浓度和气象数据
项目 $\bar x \pm s$ 最小值 P25 M P75 最大值 死亡数(人/天) 1.6 ± 1.2 0.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 6.0 YLL(人年/天) 16.7 ± 14.2 0.0 5.8 14.6 25.2 80.6 SO2(μg/m3) 22.4 ± 24.8 0.5 9.0 15.0 27.0 230.6 NO2(μg/m3) 49.8 ± 25.6 3.9 29.9 46.0 65.0 177.0 PM2.5(μg/m3) 67.6 ± 51.3 6.3 33.0 52.0 86.0 345.5 PM10(μg/m3) 104.2 ± 72.1 6.0 57.0 86.6 130.9 695.0 CO(mg/m3) 1.3 ± 0.8 0.1 0.8 1.1 1.7 7.9 O3-1 h(μg/m3) 51.6 ± 34.6 0.7 24.8 44.0 72.0 187.0 O3-8 h(μg/m3) 52.0 ± 34.3 0.8 25.0 51.9 74.0 177.0 平均温度(℃) 14.8 ± 10.9 – 13.0 3.9 16.3 25.0 34.0 相对湿度(%) 51.7 ± 19.7 7.6 35.8 52.0 67.4 94.5 平均气压(hPa) 1 017.0 ± 10.2 994.0 1 008.0 1 017.0 1 025.0 1 043.0 表 2 天津市河西区大气污染物浓度与气象因素相关性(r)
项目 SO2 NO2 PM2.5 PM10 CO O3-1 h O3-8 h 平均气压 平均温度 平均湿度 SO2 1.000 NO2 0.722 b 1.000 PM2.5 0.562 a 0.615 a 1.000 PM10 0.545 a 0.565 a 0.845 b 1.000 CO 0.658 a 0.746 b 0.675 a 0.545 a 1.000 O3-1 h – 0.370 a – 0.476 a – 0.225 a – 0.140 a – 0.390 a 1.000 O3-8 h – 0.387 a – 0.474 a – 0.235 a – 0.159 a – 0.397 a 0.977 b 1.000 平均气压 0.446 a 0.446 a 0.057 0.019 0.286 a – 0.661 a – 0.665 a 1.000 平均温度 – 0.522 a – 0.490 a – 0.166 a – 0.129 a – 0.356 a 0.708 b 0.713 b – 0.637 a 1.000 相对湿度 – 0.125 a – 0.040 0.251 a 0.085 a 0.222 a – 0.121 a – 0.117 a – 0.191 0.251 1.000 注:a P < 0.05,b P < 0.01。 表 3 5种分割方法的GCV法验证结果
模型 GCV P5~P95 P10~P90 P15~P85 P20~P80 P25~P75 PM2.5(lag 03) 13.748 13.765 13.710 13.686 13.668 CO(lag 07) 13.697 13.716 13.710 13.697 13.691 NO2(lag 05) 13.734 13.743 13.669 13.664 13.633 O3-1 h(lag 05) 13.722 13.736 13.714 13.686 13.649 O3-8 h(lag 05) 13.723 13.736 13.705 13.680 13.643 表 4 多污染物模型中各污染物对每日肺癌YLL的影响
污染物 温度层 低 中 高 ER% 95 % CI ER% 95 % CI ER% 95 % CI PM2.5 4.14 0.55~7.85 a – 0.90 – 3.58~1.85 1.43 – 4.93~8.22 + SO2 3.68 0.02~7.49 a – 0.84 – 3.71~2.11 1.24 – 5.14~8.06 + NO2 3.64 0.01~7.42 a – 0.43 – 3.47~2.71 1.14 – 5.23~7.95 + CO 3.40 – 0.39~7.33 a – 0.93 – 3.83~2.06 0.94 – 5.42~7.72 + PM10 3.45 – 0.17~7.21 a – 0.07 – 5.18~5.32 1.25 – 5.11~8.05 + O3-1 h 3.95 0.27~7.76 a – 0.77 – 3.49~2.02 0.59 – 5.93~7.57 + O3-8 h 3.96 0.28~7.77 a – 0.77 – 3.49~2.02 0.57 – 5.96~7.55 CO 0.69 – 2.14~3.61 0.75 – 1.68~3.23 0.07 – 4.30~4.63 + PM2.5 0.86 – 1.99~3.80 – 0.15 – 0.49~0.19 – 0.30 – 4.67~4.27 + PM10 0.79 – 2.06~3.73 1.53 – 1.09~4.23 – 0.43 – 4.82~4.16 + O3-1 h 0.65 – 2.21~3.59 0.80 – 1.63~3.29 0.06 – 4.41~4.37 + O3-8 h 0.64 – 2.22~3.58 0.82 – 1.62~3.32 0.03 – 4.43~4.70 + NO2 0.57 – 2.29~3.52 1.38 – 1.44~4.28 – 0.14 – 4.53~4.44 + SO2 0.52 – 2.39~3.51 0.99 – 1.67~3.73 – 0.06 – 4.45~4.53 O3-1 h – 5.28 – 18.06~9.50 5.11 – 0.53~11.07 – 6.79 – 12.76~– 0.42 a + SO2 – 5.33 – 18.51~9.96 4.99 – 0.71~11.03 – 6.78 – 12.78~– 0.37 a + NO2 – 4.30 – 18.39~12.23 4.99 – 0.66~10.97 – 6.98 – 12.98~– 0.58 a + CO – 1.36 – 15.61~15.29 4.64 – 1.01~10.60 – 6.79 – 12.77~– 0.41 a + O3-8 h – 6.11 – 18.95~8.76 3.47 – 15.44~26.61 – 6.76 – 12.79~– 0.32 a + PM2.5 – 4.19 – 17.68~11.50 4.73 – 0.94~10.73 – 6.88 – 12.89~– 0.46 a + PM10 – 5.92 – 18.99~9.25 5.02 – 0.67~11.03 – 6.65 – 12.65~– 0.24 a O3-8 h – 5.59 – 18.39~9.21 5.31 – 0.25~11.17 – 7.03 – 12.94~– 0.72 a + SO2 – 5.71 – 18.85~9.57 5.20 – 0.43~11.14 – 7.02 – 12.96~– 0.67 a + NO2 – 4.67 – 18.78~11.88 5.16 – 0.40~11.04 – 7.19 – 13.12~– 0.85 a + CO – 1.78 – 15.97~14.81 4.87 – 0.68~10.73 – 7.08 – 12.99~– 0.77 a + O3-1 h – 6.38 – 19.22~8.51 7.25 – 12.40~31.32 – 6.95 – 12.94~– 0.54 a + PM2.5 – 4.58 – 18.05~11.10 4.96 – 0.62~10.85 – 7.14 – 13.09~– 0.78 a + PM10 – 6.30 – 19.36~8.88 5.26 – 0.34~11.18 – 6.89 – 12.83~– 0.55 a NO2 5.44 – 4.80~16.78 a 0.56 – 11.49~14.27 – 11.83 – 22.77~0.67 + SO2 6.23 – 4.43~18.09 a – 0.60 – 8.01~7.40 – 11.55 – 22.60~1.06 + CO 4.62 – 5.70~16.08 a – 2.43 – 9.49~2.02 – 11.90 – 22.84~0.60 + O3-1 h 6.69 – 3.82~18.33 a 0.24 – 6.32~7.25 – 12.99 – 24.05~– 0.32 + O3-8 h 6.77 – 3.75~18.44 a 0.18 – 6.38~7.20 – 12.94 – 23.99~– 0.27 + PM2.5 5.93 – 4.55~17.56 a – 0.32 – 7.65~7.60 – 11.55 – 22.57~1.04 + PM10 6.25 – 4.25~17.90 a 1.21 – 5.94~8.90 – 11.78 – 22.76~0.76 注:a与中温度层污染物效应比较,P < 0.05。 -
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