Trajectory of and impact of macro factors on AIDS incidence in Shaanxi province, 2006 – 2018

  Objective   To analyze variation trend of AIDS incidence and the association of macroeconomy and health service with AIDS incidence in Shaanxi province from 2006 to 2018.

  Methods   The data on registered AIDS cases and demographics in Shaanxi province from 2006 to 2018 were extracted from National Disease Prevention Information System; the indicators for macroeconomy and health service of the same period were collected from Shaanxi province statistics yearbooks. Multi-level models were adopted to analyze variation trend in AIDS incidence and influences of macroeconomy on AIDS incidence during the period.

  Results   A non-linear correlation between the AIDS incidence and the time of year and an over time accelerated upward trend in the AIDS incidence were observed. The local fiscal revenue was positively correlated with the incidence of AIDS (β = 0.002, P < 0.001); whereas, the number of health institutions per 1 000 people was negatively correlated with the AIDS incidence (β = – 0.306, P = 0.023).

  Conclusion   The incidence of AIDS varied with an accelerated upward trend and was closely related to social macro factors during 2006 – 2018 in Shaanxi province.