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段琼红, 段纪俊, 杨念念, 李卫平, 施侣元, 卢祖洵, 聂绍发. 2003~2011年武汉市大肠癌死亡趋势预测[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2005, 21(2): 147-148.
引用本文: 段琼红, 段纪俊, 杨念念, 李卫平, 施侣元, 卢祖洵, 聂绍发. 2003~2011年武汉市大肠癌死亡趋势预测[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2005, 21(2): 147-148.
shu
DUAN Qionghong, DUAN Jijun, YANG Niannian, . Prediction on prevalence of colorectal cancer in Wuhan from 2003 to 2011[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2005, 21(2): 147-148.
Citation: DUAN Qionghong, DUAN Jijun, YANG Niannian, . Prediction on prevalence of colorectal cancer in Wuhan from 2003 to 2011[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2005, 21(2): 147-148.
shu

2003~2011年武汉市大肠癌死亡趋势预测

Prediction on prevalence of colorectal cancer in Wuhan from 2003 to 2011

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的   应用灰色系统理论对武汉市大肠癌死亡趋势(2003~2011年)进行预测, 并探讨其可信性。
      方法   用灰色理论对大肠癌死亡率指标建立预测模型: 用GM(1, 1)建立原始模型; 用等维递补灰数动态预测来动态地预测未来结果; 引进环境干涉因子修正预测结果。
      结果   用该方法对武汉市大肠癌死亡率进行中长期预测, 结果显示, 此方法预测精度较高。且现实中有使大肠癌死亡趋势恶化的环境因子存在。
      结论   本研究为大肠癌的预测提供了新的方法, 近期预测结果已得到证实, 未来预测将进一步验证。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To predict the prevalence trend (mortality rate) of colorectal cancer in Wuhan, and to explore the reliability of the Grey Model.
      Methods   The prediction model was established based on the Grey Model to predict the result dynamically using "Same Dimension-Progressively Increased Grey Dynamic Prediction", and to modify the prediction results by considering the "Environment Interference Factors".
      Results   The mid-time and long-term predictions about mortality rate of colorectal cancer were made based on the GM(1, 1) model. The measurements about how to prevent colorectal cancer were summarized according to the results of this research.
      Conclusion   This research provided new and important means for prediction of colorectal cancer.The short-term prediction results were confirmed and the long-term prediction need to be further studied.

     

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