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赛晓勇, 张治英, 闫永平, 蔡凯平, 李岳生, 周晓农, 夏结来, 薛富波, 徐德忠. GM(1, 1)模型在洞庭湖区血吸虫病发病预测中应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2004, 20(12): 1409-1411.
引用本文: 赛晓勇, 张治英, 闫永平, 蔡凯平, 李岳生, 周晓农, 夏结来, 薛富波, 徐德忠. GM(1, 1)模型在洞庭湖区血吸虫病发病预测中应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2004, 20(12): 1409-1411.
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SAI Xiao-yong, ZHANG Zhi-ying, YAN Yong-ping, . Application of grey model (1, 1) in prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in are as of breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore in Dongting lake[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2004, 20(12): 1409-1411.
Citation: SAI Xiao-yong, ZHANG Zhi-ying, YAN Yong-ping, . Application of grey model (1, 1) in prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in are as of breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore in Dongting lake[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2004, 20(12): 1409-1411.
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GM(1, 1)模型在洞庭湖区血吸虫病发病预测中应用

Application of grey model (1, 1) in prediction of schistosomiasis prevalence in are as of breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore in Dongting lake

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的   对洞庭湖区退田还湖地区中山试点血吸虫病发病进行预测, 并为国家卫生机构合理分配卫生资源提供决策依据。
      方法   应用GM(1, 1)模型对中山试点血吸虫病患病率建模并进行残差修正, 进行3年预测。
      结果   中山试点GM(1, 1)模型平均相对误差为13.61%, 模型精度为差; 残差GM(1, 1)模型平均相对误差为4.85%, 模型精度为优.残差修正预测模型为X(1)(k+1)=-19.373641e-0.081742k+20.677187。连续3年预测值分别为15.71%, 16.54%和17.53%。
      结论   中山试点残差GM(1, 1)模型预测效果好; 血吸虫病发病在未来3年内有缓慢上升的趋势; 要加强血防工作。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To forecast the schistosomiasis prevalence in Zhongshan village of/breaking dikes or opening sluice for waterstore0 in Dongting Lake and to provide decision support for the government.
      Methods   Grey model (1, 1) was applied and residual was ameliorated.
      Results   Average relative error of schistosomiasis prevalence grey model (1, 1) in Zhongshan village was 13.61%, and model accuracy was not good.Everage relative error of grey model (1, 1) which residual was ameliorated was 4.85%, and model accuracy was good.Residual-ameliorated model was (k+1)=-19.373641e-0.081742k+20.677187.The predicted values of future three years were 15.71%, 16.54% and 17.53% respectively.
      Conclusion   The prediction effect of residual-ameliorated model is successful.Schistosomiasis prevalence in Zhongsha village will increase in the future three years.Schistosomiasis preventive work should be reinforced.

     

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