2型糖尿病高危人群的早期预测及其评价

Prediction and evaluation of population at high risk of 2 type diabetes mellitus

摘要:
目的采用巢式病例对照研究的方法, 建立2型糖尿病及糖耐量损害危险因素的Logistic回归模型。
方法用腰臀围比或腰围指标预测2型糖尿病高危人群, 并评价其效果。
结果以空腹血糖结果为标准, 在小于40岁人群中, 灵敏度均为100%, 特异度分别为80.0%和77.0%, 约登指数为0.80和0.77, 效果满意。在40岁以上人群中, 灵敏度为52.0%和40.0%, 特异度为62.0%和70.0%, 约登指数为0.14和0.10.效果不满意。按照目前推荐的腰臀围比与腰围评价标准, 2项指标测量结果一致率为85.0%。
结论在小于40岁人群中, 通过常规体检或自身测量腰臀围比或腰围, 筛检2型糖尿病的高危人群, 是一个简单、有效、经济的方法。

Abstract:
Objective Based on a nested case control study on the risk factors of type 2 diabetes and IFG, mathematical models for the risk factors of the disease were developed.
Methods Waist hip ratio or waistline was used for the predicting index of population at high risk of 2 type diabetes, and the effectiveness was evaluated.
Results For under the age of 40 years, the sensit ivities were 100%.The specificities were 80% and 77% and Youden's index were 0.80 and 0.77, respectively.The effectiveness of over 40 years was lower than under the age of 40.
Conclusion WHR or waistline was a simple and effective predicting index for under 40 years of age.