肝癌发病时期趋势和年龄效应分析

Analysis of temporal trend and effect of age on primary liver cancer incidence

摘要:
目的反映启东地区肝癌发病的时期变化趋势和年龄作用方式。
方法应用年龄-时期-队列模型对启东地区25年肝癌发病监测资料分区进行模型拟合和效应分析。
结果海东区和吕四区在局部时间上有所上升; 汇龙区、江海区、王鲍区、启西区20世纪50年代以后出生的人群发病危险性有显著减缓或下降的趋势。
结论肝癌发病危险性在时期趋势上没有整体下降, 20世纪50年代以后出生的人群发病危险性有下降趋势。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze temporal trends and effect of age on primary liver cancer(PLC)incidence in Qidong.
Methods Age-period-cohort models was used to analyze data of twenty five years PLC incidence in Qidong to delineate period, birth cohort and age effect.
Results There are some temporal period effects in Haidong and Lüsidistricts; a significant moderation or decrease trends in incidence risk begin with cohort around 1958-1962.
Conclusion There was no descending trend of PLC incidence totally and the incidence risk of the birth cohorts after the 50's of the 20th century drop off.