广州市传染性非典型肺炎流行病学分析
Study on epidemiology for SARS in Guangzhou
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摘要:目的 分析广州市传染性非典型肺炎的流行特点, 为有效制定SARS防制策略和方案提供依据.方法 采用现场流行病学与血清流行病学调查相结合的方法, 对广州市SARS疫情进行总结和分析.结果 广州市共报告SARS病例1274例, 经初步订正后为1062例, 死亡43例, 病死率4.05%;有明显接触史或传染性的病例与无明显接触史或传染性的病例比较, IgG阳性率有显著性差异(P < 0.01);可溯源病例比例和IgG阳性率随疫情变化逐月下降, 但在3月中旬以前均在50%以上; 病人接触者和动物接触者的IgG抗体阳性率(分别为10.36%和37.50%)明显高于疑似病例和健康对照人群(分别为1.95%和0.92%).结论 广州SARS病例病死率低于全球病死率; 可能存在临床上症状轻微的不典型病例, 部分密切接触者可能有隐性感染.可溯源病例的比例和血清抗体阳性率的变动, 可用于SARS疫情流行态势监测和预测.血清学结果提示, 引起人类发病的SARS冠状病毒与动物间的冠状病毒在生物学特性上可能并不相同.Abstract:Objective To probe the feature of SARS epidemic in Guangzhou and to constitute the effective preventive and control measures.Methods The epidemiology characters for SARS in Guangzhou, China, were been summarized and analyzed by the method of spot epidemiology and serum epidemiology investigation combination.Results The case-fatality rates(CFRs)was 4.05%;The incidence of the young and adult was higher than other age groups.The IgGpositive rate of the specific contaction history or infectivity cases was significant higher than other cases.The proportion of having contaction history or infectivity cases was decreased monthly and that of the IgG positive cases were above 50%.The IgG positive rates for case and animal oscalation contaction groups were higher than those of possible cases and control groups.Conclusion The epidemic period for SARS in Guangzhou was mainly in winter and spring, lasting for about four months.The serum test results indicated that covert infection and slight infection may exist.The SARS epidemic canditions could be predicted by inspecting the proportion of having contaction history or infectivity of the cases as well as the IgG positive rate of the patients.The serum surveillance from different group of people indicated that the SARS-cov in human and animals may be different.
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