重庆市主城区人口死亡率的时间序列分析

钟朝晖; 刘达伟; 张燕

重庆市主城区人口死亡率的时间序列分析

Time series analysis of mortality rate in Chongqing urban area

摘要

摘要:
目的分析和预测重庆市主城区人口死亡率的动态发展趋势, 为科学的制定卫生政策、干预措施提供依据, 并探索时序模型在医学领域中的运用。
方法采用整群抽样的方法抽取重庆市主城区中3个社区1994~2000年人口及其死亡情况的资料。应用确定型的时间序列分解法乘法模型与随机型的ARMA模型相结合, 建立重庆市主城区人口死亡率的时间序列模型。
结果模型的决定系数R²=0.7435, 平均绝对百分误差MAPE=10.59%。1995~1998年重庆市主城区人口死亡率继1994年下降以后有上升趋势, 1998年后逐渐下降, 预测2001年将继续呈现下降趋势。
结论时间序列模型能较客观的反映死亡率的发展变化规律, 所运用的时序分析和预测模型拟合效果较好, 可推广应用于疾病发病或死亡动态变化规律的分析和其未来发展趋势的预测、预报。结果表明, 重庆市主城区近年来的健康保健、卫生医疗政策措施收效较好。

Abstract:
Objective To develop the health policy scientifically, the time series model is used to analyze and forecast the dynamic trend of the mortality rate in Chongqing urban area and explore the application of time series model in the medical field.
Methods Samples of population and death are taken out from the three communities in Chongqing urban area from 1994 to 2000 by cluster sampling.Combined with certain type time series recount multiplicity model and random type ARMA model, the time series model of the death rate is established in Chongqing urban area.
Results Determinant coefficient of the model(R²)is 0.743 5, Mean Absolute Percent Error(MAPE)is 10.59%.There is a rise in the mortality rate in Chongqing urban area following the decline in 1994, which falls gradually after 1998.The forecast shows that the mortality rate would decrease continually in 2001.
Conclusion Time series model can reveal the regularity of the mortality rate development objectively.The goodness of time series analysis and forecasting model is good, so it can be used to analyzed the regularity of disease or death variation and fore cast its future development trend.The effect of health care and health policy in recent years in Chongqing urban area is relatively good.

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