建德市肾综合征出血热GM(1,1)模型预测研究

GM(1,1) Model Study on Mcrbidity of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiande County

摘要: 为利用灰色模型GM(1,1)预测肾综合征出血热(HFRS)年发病率。采用建德市肾综合征血热1970~1997年年发病率资料建立GM(1,1)模型,预测1998~2002年HFRS年发病率。结果表明实验预测阶段(1993~1997年)年发病率结果同实际值吻合,模型精度等级检验良好,能采用GM(1,1)模型预测1998~2002年HFRS年发病率。表明GM(1,1)可作为一项快速和简便的方法预测HFRS发病情况,为控制HFRS流行提供一项辅助手段。

Abstract: Objective:GM ( 1,1) model study on Morbidity forecasting of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome.Materials and Methods:GM (1,1) model applies to morbidity forecasting (1998-2002 year)of Hemorrhagic Fever-with Renal Syndrome with morbidity rate of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome form 1970 to 1997 year in Jiande county.Results:As forecasting of experimental results fit well with GM (1,1) model on moibidity of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome(1993"1997) and the morbidity forecasting Conclusion GM (1,1) model could be a rapid and practical method for forecasting of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome epidemic and help to control its epidemic.