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马琳, 曹磊, 邱琳, 朱妮, 王安礼, 刘峰, 张同军, 刘东立. 陕西省黑热病流行病学特征及时空聚类分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2018, 34(7): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1115469
引用本文: 马琳, 曹磊, 邱琳, 朱妮, 王安礼, 刘峰, 张同军, 刘东立. 陕西省黑热病流行病学特征及时空聚类分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2018, 34(7): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1115469
Lin MA, Lei CAO, Lin QIU, . Prevalence characteristics and space-time clustering of leishmaniasis in Shaanxi province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2018, 34(7): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1115469
Citation: Lin MA, Lei CAO, Lin QIU, . Prevalence characteristics and space-time clustering of leishmaniasis in Shaanxi province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2018, 34(7): 1021-1025. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1115469

陕西省黑热病流行病学特征及时空聚类分析

Prevalence characteristics and space-time clustering of leishmaniasis in Shaanxi province

  • 摘要:
      目的   分析陕西省黑热病流行病学和时空聚集特征及疫情长期流行的动态趋势,为疫情监测及制定防控措施提供科学依据。
      方法   收集陕西省1953年7月 — 2016年12月黑热病疫情报告数据,采用描述流行病学方法分析黑热病的三间分布,并应用SaTScan 9.04和ArcGIS 10.2软件进行时空聚类分析和局部空间自相关分析。
      结果   陕西省1953年7月 — 2016年12月累计报告黑热病发病41 990例,年均发病率为2.25/10万;死亡210例,年均死亡率为0.01/10万;总病死率为0.50 %。陕西省黑热病在1950年代发病数、死亡数和病死率均较高,1960年代以后大幅下降,到2004年疫情有小幅回升,部分地区出现小的暴发点。黑热病发病高峰以夏秋季7 — 9月为主,占总发病数的36.98 %;男女发病性别比为1.93 : 1;职业以农民和散居儿童为主,分别占总发病数的48.10 %和34.18 %。黑热病病例主要分布在陕西省10个地级市92个县(区);时空聚类分析结果显示,陕西省黑热病共探测到5个聚集区域,聚集中心分别为靖边县、勉县、武功县、蓝田县和澄城县;空间自相关分析结果显示,1950年代关中地区有多处黑热病高 – 高聚集区,1960 — 1990年代以陕北地区为主,2000年代在汉中市出现高 – 高聚集区,2010年代高 – 高聚集区为宜川县和韩城市等地貌特点为黄土高原与关中平原交界地带。
      结论   陕西省黑热病发病总体呈下降趋势,近年局部有所回升,应针对高危人群和高发地区加强疫情监测,及时控制黑热病重新流行。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To analyze prevalence characteristics, time-space clustering and long-term dynamic trend of leishmaniasis in Shaanxi province, and to provide evidences for implementing surveillance and prevention of the disease.
      Methods   We collected incidence data of leishmaniasis reported in Shaanxi province between July 1953 and December 2016 and conducted time-space clustering spatial autocorrelation analysis on the data with SaTScan 9.04 and ArcGIS 10.2 software.
      Results   During the period in the province, a total of 41 990 leishmaniasis incidences were reported, with an average annual incidence rate of 2.25/100 000, and totally 210 deaths due to the disease were registered, with a mean annual mortality of 0.01/100 000 and an overall case fatality rate of 0.50%. The incidence rate, mortality rate, and case fatality rate of the leishmaniasis were high during 1950's and then declined greatly from 1960's, but rose again slightly in 2004 with small scale outbreaks in some regions. More leishmaniasis cases (36.98% of all incidents) were reported between July and September of a year and the male to female ratio of the cases was 1.93:1. The majority of the cases were farmers and scattered-living children, accounting for 48.10% and 34.18% of all the cases, respectively. The leishmaniasis cases were reported in all administration regions (92 counties or districts) of the province. Five regions with space-time clustering of leishmaniasis cases were identified. The results of spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed the high-high cluster areas in central Shaanxi plain region during 1950's, northern Shaanxi from 1960's to 1990's, Hanzhong municipality during 2000's, and Yichuan county and Hancheng municipality during 2010's; all the high-high cluster areas were located in the border region of trans Loess Plateau and central Shaanxi plain.
      Conclusion   The morbidity of leishmaniasis epidemic generally showed a downward trend in Shaanxi province between 1953 and 2006 but increased in some areas recently; the results suggest surveillance on the disease should be strengthened to control the spreading the disease.

     

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