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张克兴, 王强, 许宁, 吕锡芳, 张丽, 陈剑宇, 高绪芳. 成都不同温度范围PM10对老年人累积滞后死亡影响[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2018, 34(2): 268-272. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1116894
引用本文: 张克兴, 王强, 许宁, 吕锡芳, 张丽, 陈剑宇, 高绪芳. 成都不同温度范围PM10对老年人累积滞后死亡影响[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2018, 34(2): 268-272. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1116894
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Ke-xing ZHANG, Qiang WANG, Ning XU, . Short-term cumulative lag impacts of PM10 exposure on mortality at various air temperature among residents aged 65 years and over in Chengdu city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2018, 34(2): 268-272. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1116894
Citation: Ke-xing ZHANG, Qiang WANG, Ning XU, . Short-term cumulative lag impacts of PM10 exposure on mortality at various air temperature among residents aged 65 years and over in Chengdu city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2018, 34(2): 268-272. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1116894
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成都不同温度范围PM10对老年人累积滞后死亡影响

Short-term cumulative lag impacts of PM10 exposure on mortality at various air temperature among residents aged 65 years and over in Chengdu city

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的   研究不同温度范围PM10对成都市≥65岁老年人过早死亡累积滞后效应的影响。
      方法   利用四分位间距对气温进行分层，运用分布滞后非线性Quasipoisson回归模型，分层分析2013 — 2016年不同温度范围PM10对成都老年人过早死亡的累积滞后效应及其对死亡影响的持续作用时间。
      结果   调整温度后，PM10的短期波动对成都老年人过早死亡的影响向后延迟2～5 d，其累积滞后死亡影响持续3～5 d，PM10每增加10μg/m3可使老年人非意外全死因死亡累积滞后效应增加0.2%（95 % CI = 0.0 %～0.3 %）。在高温和中等温度范围PM10对老年人的过早死亡存在显著的累积滞后影响，但在低温范围PM10对老年人的过早死亡影响无统计学意义（P > 0.05）；在高温范围PM10每增加10μg/m3全死因（非意外）和心血管病累积滞后死亡风险分别增加3.5 %（95 % CI = 0.1 %～7.0 %）和3.3 %（95 % CI = 0.2 %～6.4 %）；在中温范围PM10每增加10μg/m3全死因（非意外）、心血管病和癌症累积滞后死亡风险分别增加0.3 %（95 % CI = 0.1 %～0.5 %）、0.3 %（95% CI = 0.1 %～0.6 %）和0.5 %（95% CI = 0.2 %～0.9 %）；所有温度范围PM10对呼吸疾病死亡的滞后累积效应均无统计学意义（P > 0.05）。
      结论   成都PM10对老年人过早死亡影响存在显著的温度差异。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective   To explore the difference in cumulative lag impacts of particulate matter less than 10 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) exposure on daily mortality in relation to various air temperature among residents aged 65 years and over in Chengdu city.
      Methods   The scales of air temperature were defined by interquartile range (IQR) of annual mean temperature during 2013 – 2016. We estimated cumulative lag impacts of PM10 on mortality and the duration of the cumulative lag impacts with distributed lag nonlinear quasipoisson regression model by temperature scale stratum.
      Results   After controlling for daily mean temperature, a significant cumulative lag impact of PM10 (excess mortality risk ER = 0.2 %, 95 % confidence interval 95 % CI: 0.0 % – 0.3 %) for a 10 μg/m3 increase on non-accidental mortality was observed. The lag impacts were postponed two to five days and the lag impacts lasted for three to five days. Stratified by IQR of temperature, the associations between PM10 and cumulative lag impacts of PM10 on the mortality were quite different in different temperature ranges. The impacts were significant at high and medium temperature ranges. However, significant impacts were not observed at low temperature range. As for high temperature range, significant cumulative lag impacts of PM10 (for a 10 μg/m3 increase) on non-accidental mortality (ER = 3.5 %, 95 % CI: 0.1 % – 7.0 %) and cardiovascular mortality (ER = 3.3 %, 95 % CI: 0.2 % – 6.4 %) were observed. As for medium temperature range, significant cumulative lag impacts of PM10 (for a 10 μg/m3 increase) on non-accidental mortality (ER = 0.3 %, 95 % CI: 0.1 % – 0.5 %), cardiovascular mortality (ER = 0.3%, 95 % CI: 0.1 % – 0.6 %), and cancer mortality (ER = 0.5%, 95 % CI: 0.2 % – 0.9%) were observed. No significant cumulative lag impacts of PM10 (for a 10 μg/m3 increase) on respiratory mortality were observed on whole temperature range.
      Conclusion   Cumulative lag impacts of PM10 on mortality of residents aged 65 years and over in Chengdu city are influenced significantly by ambient air temperature.

     

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