Abstract:
Objective To analyze incidence trend and spatial distribution of class A and B notifiable infectious diseases across China and to provide evidences for the prevention and control of infectious disease.
Methods We collected data on incidences of class A and B notifiable infectious diseases from 2011 through 2015 across China from " China Yearbook of Health and Family Planning Statistics”. Chi-square test for trend and geographic spatial statistical analysis were used to analyze incidence trend and spatial distribution and correlation of class A and B notifiable infectious diseases.
Results From 2011 to 2015, the overall incidence rate of class A and B notifiable infectious diseases in China was 241.44, 238.76, 225.80, 226.98, and 223.60 per 100 000 population, with a significant decrease trend (χ2trend = 13249.52, P < 0.05). During the 5-year period in China, the regional incidence rate of class A and B notifiable infectious diseases presented a steady decline in most regions, a fluctuation pattern in some regions, and a significant increase trend in Shandong, Hainan, Anhui, Yunnan province, Chongqing municipality, and Tibet Autonomous Region (Tibet) and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) (P < 0.05), with higher rate in the Western regions and lower rate in the Eastern regions. Global spatial autocorrelation analysis on the incidence rates of class A and B notifiable infectious diseases resulted in significant Moran's I coefficients of 0.092, 0.086, 0.106, 0.124, and 0.155 for the year from 2011 to 2015 (all P < 0.05); the local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed low-low clusters of the incidences in eastern China during the 5-year period but high-high clusters in Tibet and Xinjiang only in 2015. The hot spots for class A and B notifiable infectious disease incidence were mainly observed in Tibet and Xinjiang; whereas, the cold spots were observed in Beijing and Tianjin municipality, Hebei, Henan, Shangdong, Jiangsu province, and Shanghai municipality and its adjacent provinces.
Conclusion The epidemics of class A and B notifiable infectious diseases were under efficient control in China during the period from 2011 to 2015 but health resources allocation needs to be improved in the Western China for infectious diseases prevention and treatment.