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朱斌, 毛瑛. 中国2005 — 2015年典型法定报告肠道传染病流行趋势及时空集聚分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2018, 34(8): 1120-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1117754
引用本文: 朱斌, 毛瑛. 中国2005 — 2015年典型法定报告肠道传染病流行趋势及时空集聚分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2018, 34(8): 1120-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1117754
Bin ZHU, Ying MAO. Prevalence and spatial-temporal clustering of typical notifiable intestinal infectious diseases in China, 2005 – 2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2018, 34(8): 1120-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1117754
Citation: Bin ZHU, Ying MAO. Prevalence and spatial-temporal clustering of typical notifiable intestinal infectious diseases in China, 2005 – 2015[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2018, 34(8): 1120-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1117754

中国2005 — 2015年典型法定报告肠道传染病流行趋势及时空集聚分析

Prevalence and spatial-temporal clustering of typical notifiable intestinal infectious diseases in China, 2005 – 2015

  • 摘要:
      目的  分析中国2005 — 2015年31个省、市、自治区典型法定报告肠道传染病(甲型肝炎、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒)的流行趋势及时空集聚特征,为采取区域化干预措施提供科学依据。
      方法  收集2006 — 2016年《中国卫生统计年鉴》和《中国卫生和计划生育统计年鉴》中甲型肝炎、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒的发病率数据进行趋势分析,并应用全局和局部空间自相关分析方法和可视化地图分析三类典型法定报告肠道传染病的时空集聚特征。
      结果  中国2005 — 2015年各地区甲型肝炎、痢疾、伤寒和副伤寒的发病率均呈下降趋势(均P < 0.01)。全局空间自相关分析结果显示,甲型肝炎发病率的空间集中程度最高但呈下降趋势,全局Moran′s I值由2005年的0.508下降至2010年的0.445,再下降至2015年的0.404;痢疾发病率的空间集中程度呈上升趋势,全局Moran′s I值由2005年的0.367上升至2010年的0.404,再上升至2015年的0.443;伤寒和副伤寒发病率的空间集中程度最低且呈先下降后上升趋势,全局Moran′s I值由2005年的0.236下降至2010年的0.135,又上升至2015年的0.222。局部空间自相关分析结果显示,甲型肝炎发病率在新疆、青海、西藏持续呈现高高集聚特征,集聚区域略有变化;痢疾发病率在北京、天津持续呈现高高集聚特征,高高集聚区域逐渐蔓延至河北;伤寒和副伤寒的高高集聚区域则集中分布在西南地区。
      结论  中国2005 — 2015年典型法定报告肠道传染病发病率呈下降趋势,其中甲型肝炎发病率的空间集中程度最高,应根据传染病的流行病趋势和时空集聚特征制定有针对性的防控措施来预防肠道传染病的发生。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To analyze prevalence trends and spatial-temporal cluster features of typical notifiable intestinal infectious diseases (hepatitis A, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid) in China from 2005 through 2015 and to provide evidences for developing region-oriented prevention and control measures.
      Methods  We collected data on incidence rates of hepatitis A, dysentery, typhoid and paratyphoid for 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions across China between 2005 and 2015 from China Health Statistical Yearbook and China Health and Family Planning Statistical Yearbook for trend analysis on the rates. Global and local spatial autocorrelation and maps were used to identify and visualize spatial-temporal clustering of the three notifiable intestinal infectious diseases′ incidence.
      Results  The incidence of hepatitis A, dysentery, and typhoid and paratyphoid decreased in all the regions during the 11-year period (P < 0.01 for all). Global spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that positive spatial autocorrelation was the strongest for hepatitis A incidence but the autocorrelation tended to alleviate, with the Moran′s I value decreasing from 0.505 in 2005 to 0.445 in 2010 and 0.404 in 2015; while the correlation intensity was the lowest for typhoid and paratyphoid incidence, with the Moran′s I value decreasing from 0.236 in 2005 to 0.135 in 2010 first and then increasing to 0.222 in 2015; the correlation intensity of the incidence of dysentery increased during the period, with the Moran′s I value increasing from 0.367 in 2005 to 0.404 in 2010 and 0.443 in 2015. Local spatial autocorrelation analysis demonstrated that the incidence of hepatitis A was of a slightly fluctuating high-high cluster feature in Qinghai province and in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Tibet Autonomous Region at all the time points; the incidence of dysentery presented a continuous high-high cluster feature in Beijing and Tianjin municipality, and in some regions of Hebei province. The high-high clustering of typhoid and paratyphoid incidence was identified mainly in Southwest China.
      Conclusion  The incidence of typical notifiable intestinal infectious diseases displayed a downward trend and the strongest spatial clustering for hepatitis A incidents in China from 2005 to 2015. Spatial-temporal clustering and its variation trend should be considered when developing targeted strategies for the prevention of intestinal infectious diseases.

     

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