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李旭, 仇蕾洁, 姜鑫洋, 高雨, 刘倩, 杨蕾, 马桂峰. 中国2012 — 2016年肺结核发病趋势及空间自相关分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(11): 1624-1627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1121991
引用本文: 李旭, 仇蕾洁, 姜鑫洋, 高雨, 刘倩, 杨蕾, 马桂峰. 中国2012 — 2016年肺结核发病趋势及空间自相关分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(11): 1624-1627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1121991
LI Xu, QIU Lei-jie, JIANG Xin-yang, . Changing trend and spatial autocorrelation of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China: 2012 – 2016[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(11): 1624-1627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1121991
Citation: LI Xu, QIU Lei-jie, JIANG Xin-yang, . Changing trend and spatial autocorrelation of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China: 2012 – 2016[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(11): 1624-1627. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1121991

中国2012 — 2016年肺结核发病趋势及空间自相关分析

Changing trend and spatial autocorrelation of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China: 2012 – 2016

  • 摘要:
      目的  了解中国31个省、自治区和直辖市2012 — 2016年肺结核发病趋势及其空间分布特征,为我国肺结核防治工作提供科学参考。
      方法  收集2013 — 2017年《中国卫生与计划生育统计年鉴》中肺结核发病资料进行趋势分析,采用全局和局部空间自相关分析方法分析中国2012 — 2016年肺结核发病率的空间关联性和空间集聚特征。
      结果  中国2012、2013、2014、2015和2016年肺结核发病率分别为70.62/10万、66.80/10万、65.63/10万、63.42/10万和61.00/10万,肺结核发病率呈下降趋势(χ2趋势 = 3.90,P = 0.048),年均下降速度为3.60 %;全局空间自相关分析结果显示,中国2012、2013、2014、2015和2016年肺结核发病率的Moran′s I值分别为0.125、0.129、0.125、0.112和0.105,各年份肺结核发病率均呈空间正相关(均P < 0.05);局部空间自相关分析结果显示,中国2016年肺结核发病率在东部地区主要呈现为高(低) – 高(低)正相关聚集区,中西部地区主要呈现为高(低) – 低(高)负相关聚集区;在北京、天津和山东地区具有较高的地域空间聚集性。
      结论  中国2012 — 2016年肺结核发病率呈下降趋势,肺结核发病率存在空间关联性,北京、天津和山东地区肺结核发病率存在明显的地区聚集性。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To examine incidence trend and spatial distribution characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis in 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government in during 2012 – 2016, and to provide references for tuberculosis control in China.
      Methods  The data on pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China were extracted from statistical yearbook for health and family planning in China from 2013 to 2017. Global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis were used to assess spatial correlation and spatial clustering characteristics of pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in China from 2012 to 2016.
      Results  The annual pulmonary tuberculosis incidence for the years from 2012 to 2016 were 70.62, 66.80, 65.63, 63.42, and 61.00 per 100 000 population in China, with a significantly downward trend (χ2trend = 3.90, P = 0.048) and an average annual decline rate of 3.60%. The global spatial autocorrelation analysis resulted in the Moran′s I values for annual pulmonary tuberculosis incidence of 0.125, 0.129, 0.125, 0.112, and 0.105 for the years from 2012 to 2016 and there was a positive spatial correlation in annual pulmonary tuberculosis incidence (P < 0.05). The results of local spatial autocorrelation analysis revealed that the incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis mainly presented a high (low) – high (low) positive correlation clustering in eastern region, high (low) – low (high) inverse correlation clustering in central and western regions, and a higher regional spatial clustering in Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong province.
      Conclusion  The incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis showed a downward trend in 2012 to 2016 in China. There was a spatial correlation among regional incidences of pulmonary tuberculosis and there was an obviously regional clustering for pulmonary tuberculosis incidence in Beijing, Tianjin and Shandong province.

     

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