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马传智, 李树梅, 许小珊, 马洁, 孙娜, 王素珍, 石福艳. 基于网络规模迭加法潍坊市潍城区MSM人群规模估计[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(8): 1166-1170. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1122470
引用本文: 马传智, 李树梅, 许小珊, 马洁, 孙娜, 王素珍, 石福艳. 基于网络规模迭加法潍坊市潍城区MSM人群规模估计[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(8): 1166-1170. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1122470
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Chuan-zhi MA, Shu-mei LI, Xiao-shan XU, Jie MA, . Estimation on population size of men who have sex with men in a district of Weifang city, Shandong province using network scale-up method[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(8): 1166-1170. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1122470
Citation: Chuan-zhi MA, Shu-mei LI, Xiao-shan XU, Jie MA, . Estimation on population size of men who have sex with men in a district of Weifang city, Shandong province using network scale-up method[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(8): 1166-1170. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1122470
shu

基于网络规模迭加法潍坊市潍城区MSM人群规模估计

Estimation on population size of men who have sex with men in a district of Weifang city, Shandong province using network scale-up method

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  基于网络规模迭加法（NSUM）估计山东省潍坊市潍城区男男性行为者（MSM）人群规模，为艾滋病高危人群的防控提供理论依据。
      方法  于2018年8 — 12月采用多阶段随机抽样方法在潍坊市潍城区抽取3 185名社区居民进行问卷调查，应用NSUM估计潍城区一般人群的社交网络规模（c），并根据c和调查对象认识的MSM人数及认可程度、规模比和传递率估计和校正潍城区MSM人群的规模。
      结果  通过稳定性分析，经性别、年龄、文化程度、婚姻状况、居住时间的校正及异常值剔除后使用NSUM估计潍城区MSM人群规模为1 036人，经规模比和传递率对MSM规模的校正后，最终估计结果为4 054人。
      结论  采用NSUM对潍城区MSM人群规模进行估计具有推广价值。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men (MSM) in a district of Weifang city, Shandong province using network scale-up method (NSUM) and to provide evidences for developing intervention programs in populations at high-risk of AIDS.
      Methods  We conducted a questionnaire survey among 3 185 permanent residents aged 18 – 60 years selected with multistage random sampling in Weicheng district of Weifang city from August to December 2018. The size of social network in general population of the district was estimated using NSUM; then the population size of MSM was estimated based on the estimated social network size and the recognition degree-weighted number of MSM the participants familiar with; and the estimated MSM population size was adjusted by ratios of the demographics-specific populations and the transmission rate of relevant information.
      Results  The estimated number of MSM in the district is 1 036 base on the results of stability analysis, adjustmenting for gender, age, education level, marital status, residing time, and elimination of outliers. After further adjustment for ratios of the demographics-specific populations and the transmission rate of relevant information, the estimated number of MSM is 4 054.
      Conclusion  Network scale-up method could be applied in the estimation of population size of men who have sex with men in a general population.

     

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