Abstract:
Objective To explore the effect of daily mean temperature on circulatory disease mortality in urban residents and to provide evidences for reducing temperature-related mortality risk of circulatory diseases.
Methods The data on circulatory disease mortality among permanent residents of Shenzhen city from January 2013 through December 2017 were collected from death registry system and that on meteorology of the same period were collected simultaneously. The distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to analyze delayed and cumulative effect of daily mean temperature on age-, sex-, and major cause-specific circulatory disease mortality. The median daily temperature of 24.7 ℃ was used in estimations of relative risk (RR) of mortality related to temperature variation (up or down) of one degree Celsius.
Results No significant correlations were observed between extreme high temperature and total and age- or sex-specific circulatory disease mortality and the mortality of cerebrovascular disease and ischemic heart disease during the period. Extreme low temperature was correlated with significantly increased total mortality of circulatory diseases (RR = 1.603, 95% confidence interval 95% CI: 1.123 – 2.288), the circulatory disease mortality in the population over 65 years old (RR = 1.706, 95% CI: 1.080 – 2.696) and male population (RR = 1.800, 95% CI: 1.163, 2.785), and the mortality of cerebrovascular diseases (RR = 1.985, 95% CI: 1.170 – 3.434); but the associations of extreme low temperature with the mortality of female population, population under 65 years old, and the mortality of ischemic heart disease were not significant.
Conclusion Extreme low temperature can increase circulatory disease mortality in a time lag manner among the residents of Shenzhen city; male population and population over 65 years are vulnerable to the affect of extreme low temperature.
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