Abstract:
Objective To evaluate long-term incidence trend of thyroid cancer in the Changning district of Shanghai from 1973 to 2013 and to provide a reference for developing thyroid cancer prevention strategies.
Methods Using the data from the Shanghai Cancer Registry from 1973 to 2013, we calculated crude incidence rates, age-standardized incidence rates by Chinese and Segi's world standard population for thyroid cancer in populations of Changning district. The average annual percentage change was used to evaluate incidence trend of thyroid cancer with Joinpoint software. Age-period-cohort model was further performed to assess the influence of age, period, and population cohort on changes in the incidence trend.
Results During the 41-year period in the district, totally 492 male and 1 483 female firstly diagnosed thyroid cancer cases were registered. The crude incidence rates of the males and females were 4.51/100 000 and 13.81/100 000. During the period, the incidence of thyroid cancer in the men and women decreased at first, then rose gently and kept rising rapidly afterwards. For the periods of 1973 – 1985, 1986 – 2007, and 2008 – 2013, the annual percent changes (APCs) for age adjusted incidence rates by standard Chinese population were – 13.3% (95% confidence interval 95% CI: – 20.8% – – 5.1%), 7.0% (95% CI: 3.8% – 10.3%), and 32.6% (95% CI: 21.5% – 44.64%) for the male population; while, for the female population, the APCs were – 11.8% (95% CI: – 16.3% – – 7.1%), 6.3% (95%CI: 3.4% – 8.9%), and 18.7% (95% CI: 15.7% – 22.2%), respectively. The results of the age-period-cohort model analysis indicated that age, period, and population cohort had an influence on the incidence trend of thyroid cancer.
Conclusion The incidence of thyroid cancer in female population is three times higher compared to that in male population and the thyroid cancer incidence had been increasing in both male and female population in Changning district of Shanghai during 1973 – 2013.
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