广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎分区分级防控策略研究

屠鸿薇; 钟若曦; 肖建鹏; 肖玲钰; 李艳; 宋铁

doi:10.11847/zgggws1128921

广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎分区分级防控策略研究

Region- and risk-specific strategies for coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic control and prevention in Guangdong province: a risk assessment study

摘要

摘要:
目的利用风险评估方法探索出一套适用于广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎（新冠肺炎）疫情的分区分级防控方案。
方法基于2020年1月1日 — 2月23日全国各省新增病例数、广东省各城市疫情以及重点地区人群迁入广东省的数据，利用专家会商法设计评估体系，通过定量分析法计算152个区域的输入、扩散及综合风险值。通过专家会商法提出广东省新冠肺炎疫情风险分级管理方案。
结果输入风险中，处于高风险的县区17个（11.18 %）、中风险36个（23.68 %），低风险99个（65.13 %）；扩散风险中，处于高风险的县区17个（11.08 %），中等风险32个（21.05 %），低风险103个（67.76 %）。综合高风险地区主要集中在佛山市、惠州市、广州市、深圳市、惠州市、东莞市等城市。
结论高风险地区集中在广东省珠三角，由于经济水平高、人口密度大，外来务工人员集中，面临着更大的防控压力。各地区可参照分区分级评估方法与防控措施建议灵活调整防控工作，尽快恢复生产与社会秩序。

Abstract:
Objective To preliminarily develop a region- and risk-specific plan for prevention and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic base on the risk assessment methodology.
Methods We collected the data on daily number of COVID-19 cases reported in every provincial-level regions across China and every prefecture level regions in Guangdong province and the size of migrant populations from regions with severe COVID-19 epidemic. A scheme for assessment of COVID-19 epidemic risk was developed with expert consultations. The risk of imported, local and combined transmission of COVID-19 were evaluated using quantitative analysis for 152 county/district level regions in Guangdong province.
Results The assessment results demonstrated that for all the regions, 17 (11.18%), 36 (23.68%), and 99 (65.13%) were at high, moderate, and low risk of imported transmission and 17 (11.08%), 32(21.05%), and 103 (67.76%) were at high, moderate, and low risk of local transmission of COVID-19, respectively. The regions with high combined risk distributed mainly around several municipalities, including Foshan, Huizhou, Gruangzhou, Shenzhen, and Dongguan.
Conclusion The Pearl River Delta region is at a high risk of COVID-19 epidemic in relation to its high economic development and population density, as well as a large number of migrant workers. The region- and risk-specific assessment results may provide a reference for effective prevention and control of COVID-19 epidemic in the province.

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