高级检索
丁克琴, 易波, 陈奕, 王爱红, 劳旭影, 董红军, 许国章. 浙江省宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情流行病学分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(4): 498-502. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1129099
引用本文: 丁克琴, 易波, 陈奕, 王爱红, 劳旭影, 董红军, 许国章. 浙江省宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情流行病学分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2020, 36(4): 498-502. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1129099
Ke-qin DING, Bo YI, Yi CHEN, . Epidemic cluster of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo city of Zhejiang province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(4): 498-502. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1129099
Citation: Ke-qin DING, Bo YI, Yi CHEN, . Epidemic cluster of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo city of Zhejiang province[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2020, 36(4): 498-502. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1129099

浙江省宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情流行病学分析

Epidemic cluster of novel coronavirus disease 2019 in Ningbo city of Zhejiang province

  • 摘要:
      目的  对浙江省宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情进行流行病学调查分析,探讨该传染病的传播模式和传播指标,为疫情有效防控提供科学依据。
      方法  对宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情进行描述分析,包括聚集性病例特征、传播方式、罹患情况等,并对新型冠状病毒肺炎病例的潜伏期和代间距进行估算。
      结果  宁波市自1月21日报告首例病例,截至3月10日,共报告聚集性疫情22起,累计报告聚集性病例166例,其中确诊病例137例,无症状感染者29例。聚集性病例中女性占63.25 %(105/166),≥ 50岁病例占59.64 %(99/166);经家庭、亲戚朋友、同事、聚众活动以及高风险地区暴露感染的比例分别为40.96 %(68/166)、10.84 %(18/166)、1.81 %(3/166)、24.10 %(40/166)和22.29 %(37/166)。宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎聚集性疫情总罹患率为6.70 %(166/2 478)。22起聚集性疫情涉及41个家庭病例聚集,家庭续发率为57.27 %(87/152)。经推算,新型冠状病毒肺炎病例潜伏期2~21 d,中位数5 d,众数3 d,均数7.11 d;代际间距1~21 d,中位数6 d,众数3 d,均数7 d。
      结论  家庭聚集是新型冠状病毒肺炎流行的主要表现形式,潜伏期病例和隐性感染者可作为传染源导致传播和流行。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To analyze epidemic cluster of 2019 novel conronavirus diseases (COVID-2019) in Ningbo city of Zhejiang province and to provide evidence for effective containment of the epidemic.
      Methods  We collected the data on all COVID-2019 cases reported in Ningbo city from January 21, 2020 - the time of first case confirmation, till March 10, 2020. Descriptive statistics was conducted and incubation period and intergenerational interval of the reported cases were estimated.
      Results  During the period in the city, totally 22 COVID-2019 cluster epidemics were identified, involving 137 confirmed and 29 asymptomatic cases which were accounted for 88.77% of all (187) reported COVID-2019 cases. Of the cases involved in the epidemic clusters, 63.25% (105) were female and 59.64% (99) were aged over 50 years. Among all the involved cases, the proportion of reported infection-exposure history was 40.96% (68) for exposed to family members, 10.84% (18) to relatives or friends, 1.81% (3) to colleagues, 24.10% (40) to someone during social activities, and 22.29% (37) to someone during travelling in regions with severe epidemic of COVID-2019, respectively. For the 2 478 people exposed to the 22 epidemic cluster settings, the overall attack rate 6.70%. For the 41 families involved in the epidemic clusters, the secondary family attack rate was 57.27% (87/152). For all the cases of the clusters, the estimated incubation period ranged from 2 to 21 days, with an average of 7.11 days, a median of 5 days and a mode of 3 days; the estimated generation interval ranged from 1 to 21 days, with an average of 7.0 days, a median of 6 days, and a mode of 3 days, respectively.
      Conclusion  Family clustering is a main prevalent pattern of 2019 novel conronavirus disease epidemic in Ningbo city; the infections during incubation period and asymptomatic infections can give rise to viral transmission in COVID-2019 epidemics.

     

/

返回文章
返回