陕西省2006 — 2018年艾滋病疫情变化及宏观因素影响

朱妮; 李超; 周体操; 杨国婧; 李欣欣; 张义

doi:10.11847/zgggws1129184

陕西省2006 — 2018年艾滋病疫情变化及宏观因素影响

Trajectory of and impact of macro factors on AIDS incidence in Shaanxi province, 2006 – 2018

摘要

摘要:
目的分析陕西省2006 — 2018年艾滋病发病趋势，探讨艾滋病报告发病率与宏观经济、卫生服务相关因素的关联。
方法收集中国疾病控制信息系统中2006 — 2018年陕西省各地市艾滋病发病数及人口数；收集2006 — 2018年《陕西统计年鉴》中宏观经济与卫生服务水平等指标，采用多水平模型拟合2006 — 2018年艾滋病发病趋势及宏观因素对发病趋势的影响。
结果艾滋病发病率与年份之间存在非线性关联，且随时间推移呈现加速上升趋势；地方财政收入（β ＝ 0.002，P < 0.001）与艾滋病发病率呈正相关；而每千人卫生机构数（β ＝ – 0.306, P ＝ 0.023）与艾滋病发病率呈负相关。
结论陕西省艾滋病发病呈现加速上升趋势，同时与社会宏观因素密切相关。

Abstract:
Objective To analyze variation trend of AIDS incidence and the association of macroeconomy and health service with AIDS incidence in Shaanxi province from 2006 to 2018.
Methods The data on registered AIDS cases and demographics in Shaanxi province from 2006 to 2018 were extracted from National Disease Prevention Information System; the indicators for macroeconomy and health service of the same period were collected from Shaanxi province statistics yearbooks. Multi-level models were adopted to analyze variation trend in AIDS incidence and influences of macroeconomy on AIDS incidence during the period.
Results A non-linear correlation between the AIDS incidence and the time of year and an over time accelerated upward trend in the AIDS incidence were observed. The local fiscal revenue was positively correlated with the incidence of AIDS (β = 0.002, P < 0.001); whereas, the number of health institutions per 1 000 people was negatively correlated with the AIDS incidence (β = – 0.306, P = 0.023).
Conclusion The incidence of AIDS varied with an accelerated upward trend and was closely related to social macro factors during 2006 – 2018 in Shaanxi province.

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