深圳与广州新冠病毒流行特征与防控效果分析

钟剑明; 郭聪锐; 许玉成; 梁静; 李汉锋; 刘俊玲; 李学云

doi:10.11847/zgggws1131702

深圳与广州新冠病毒流行特征与防控效果分析

Prevalence characteristics and control effect of COVID-19 epidemic in Shenzhen and Guangzhou city: a registry data analysis

摘要

摘要:
目的比较广东省深圳和广州两座城市新型冠状病毒流行情况和防控效果。
方法收集2020年1月 — 4月深圳和广州两座城市新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的发病情况，描述三间分布和流行特征，分析两座城市应对COVID-19的不同处置方式，计算其基本再生数（R₀）。
结果深圳和广州2020年1 — 4月分别有486和715例，深圳经历1个、广州经历3个发病高峰，3 — 4月广州的发病人数比深圳多。两座城市的病例均集中在经济比较发达、人员比较密集的区域。深圳和广州的基本再生数R₀分别为3.68和3.82，COVID-19无症状感染者的比例仍不清楚，但传播力较低。
结论深圳和广州2020年1 — 4月COVID-19流行情况不同，两座城市采取严厉防控措施后，疫情均得到有效控制。

Abstract:
Objective To compare the prevalence characteristics and control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic in Shenzhen and Guangzhou city.
Methods The data on reported COVID-19 cases from January through April 2020 in Shenzhen and Guangzhou city were collected. The demographic and spatial-temporal distribution of the cases were analyzed; the basic regeneration number (R₀) for COVID-19 in the two cities was estimated; strategies and measures on the epidemic control in the two cities were described and compared.
Results During the 4-month period, totally 486 and 715 COVID-19 cases were reported in Shenzhen and Guangzhou city; one incidence peak in Shenzhen city and three incidence peaks in Guangzhou city were observed. In March and April, more COVID-19 cases were reported in Guangzhou city than in Shenzhen city. More cases occurred among populations in economically developed and densely populated areas. For the COVID-19 epidemic in Shenzhen and Guangzhou city, the estimated R₀ were 3.68 and 3.82, respectively.
Conclusion During January – April 2020, COVID-19 incidence exhibited different epidemiologic characteristics in Shenzhen and Guangzhou city but the epidemic in both the city was effectively controlled in the two cities after the implementation of strict prevention measures.

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