上海市徐汇区新型冠状病毒肺炎预警指标体系构建

张俊婕; 吴强松; 汪晨夕; 周祺; 刘景壹; 玄泽亮

doi:10.11847/zgggws1132533

上海市徐汇区新型冠状病毒肺炎预警指标体系构建

Construction of a warning indicator system for coronavirus disease 2019 epidemic

摘要

摘要:
目的构建新型冠状病毒肺炎预警指标体系。
方法 2020年8 — 9月，采用德尔菲法和层析分析法相结合的方法开展2轮专家咨询，确定预警指标和权重系数。
结果从传染源，传播途径，重点人群和防控相关因素等4个方面构建了28项预警指标，两轮咨询专家积极系数分别为100 % 和93.75 %，专家权威系数（Cr）为0.882，第1轮咨询协调系数（W）为0.32（P < 0.01），第2轮咨询协调系数为0.41（P < 0.01），
结论构建的新型冠状病毒预警指标体系具有一定的科学性和合理性。

Abstract:
Objective To construct a warning indicator system for the control of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) epidemic.
Methods Based on literature study, group discussion and in-depth interviews with experts, we first established a framework and preliminarily selected indicators for a COVID-19 epidemic warning indicator system; then we conducted two rounds of consultation among 16 senior public health professionals to determine the indicators and their weight coefficients for the system using Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process (AHP) during August – September, 2020.
Results The constructed warning indicator system was consisted of 28 indexes related to 4 dimensions including infection source, transmission route, high risk population and control measure. The expert positive coefficient for the two rounds of consultation were 100% and 93.75%; the coefficient of expert authority was 0.882; and the coefficient of expert coordination was 0.32 and 0.41 for the first and the second round of consultation (both P < 0.01).
Conclusion A COVID-19 epidemic warning indicator system with explicit and attainable indexes was preliminarily constructed.

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