安徽省HIV/AIDS传播动力学追溯

汪圳; 金鑫; 吴慧; 苏斌; 吴建军; 冯毅; 邢辉; 阮玉华; 娄洁

doi:10.11847/zgggws1133147

安徽省HIV/AIDS传播动力学追溯

Epidemic dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Anhui province: a traceback study

摘要

摘要:
目的追溯安徽省HIV/AIDS的传播动力学。
方法利用贝叶斯系统发育的方法，根据安徽省HIV的两个主要亚型（CRF 01AE，CRF 07BC）的基因序列来推断有效再生数（Re）随着时间推移所产生的变化，并用它来表现安徽省艾滋病流行的动态。
结果估算出该病毒的CRF 01AE亚型起源时间为1982年（95%最高后验密度（HPD） = 1973 — 1990），而CRF 07BC亚型起源时间为1992 年（95 % HPD = 1976 — 1998）。本研究结合两个亚型系统发育结果，发现Re在2011 — 2014年随时间变化较为明显，Re从最低点中值1.34（95 % HPD = 0.94～1.80）到最高点的中值为2.20（95 % HPD = 1.67～2.84）。
结论基因序列的研究揭示安徽省HIV/AIDS的传播历史。

Abstract:
Objective To traceback the epidemic dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Anhui province.
Methods Using Bayesian phylogenetic method, we displayed the epidemic dynamics of HIV/AIDS in Anhui province with time-dependent changes in effective reproductive number (Re) estimated based on genomic sequences of the two main subtypes (CRF 01AE and CRF 07BC) of HIV in the province.
Results The HIV subtype CRF 01AE was estimated to have been originated in 1982 (95% highest posterior density HPD: 1973 – 1990); while the subtype CRF 07BC was estimated to have been originated in 1992 (95% HPD: 1976 – 1998). A more obvious time-dependent change in Re from 2011 to 2014 was observed when combining the Bayesian phylogeny of the two main HIV subtypes and the Re median varied from the lowest of 1.34 (95% HPD: 0.94 – 1.80 ) to the highest of 2.20 (95% HPD: 1.67 – 2.84) during the period.
Conclusion Gene sequence analysis on prevalent HIV strains can reveal the trajectory of HIV/AIDS epidemic transmission in Anhui province.

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