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樊凯盛, 郝艳华, 吴群红, 宁宁, 高力军, 梁立波, 杨超, 刘爱书. 重大突发公共卫生事件下“风险IEPB”模型理论构建及评价[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2021, 37(7): 1118-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134061
引用本文: 樊凯盛, 郝艳华, 吴群红, 宁宁, 高力军, 梁立波, 杨超, 刘爱书. 重大突发公共卫生事件下“风险IEPB”模型理论构建及评价[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2021, 37(7): 1118-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134061
FAN Kai-sheng, HAO Yan-hua, WU Qun-hong, . Theoretical construction and evaluation of a risk IEPB model for the public′s response to major public health emergencies[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2021, 37(7): 1118-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134061
Citation: FAN Kai-sheng, HAO Yan-hua, WU Qun-hong, . Theoretical construction and evaluation of a risk IEPB model for the public′s response to major public health emergencies[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2021, 37(7): 1118-1124. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134061

重大突发公共卫生事件下“风险IEPB”模型理论构建及评价

Theoretical construction and evaluation of a risk IEPB model for the public′s response to major public health emergencies

  • 摘要:
      目的  构建突发公共卫生事件风险下公众的信息 – 情绪 – 感知 – 行为的链条反应模型(即“风险IEPB”模型)的理论框架,并通过大样本数据对模型进行实证检验,探讨各节点间的关系。
      方法  基于文献研究对相关理论进行归纳总结,构建出“风险IEPB”模型相关作用机制框架,并于2020年8月3 — 13日采用网络问卷对全国31个省/市/自治区19132名公众进行调查,应用AMOS 24.0统计软件进行模型检验并结合Bootstrap法进行中介效应检验。
      结果  模型拟合检验结果显示,卡方自由度比、渐进残差均方和平方根、适配度指数、调整后适配度指数、规准适配指数、相对适配指数、增值适配指数、简约调整后的规准适配指数和简约适配度指数分别为46.498、0.049、0.946、0.934、0.933、0.923、0.934、0.819和0.772,构建的“风险IEPB”模型具有较好的适配度。中介效应分析结果显示,政府媒介信任、非政府媒介信任、正向情绪、负向情绪和风险感知分别对风险行为决策产生直接效应,效应值分别为0.525、 – 0.037、0.136、 – 0.071和0.027;政府媒介信任、非政府媒介信任和负向情绪分别对风险感知产生直接效应,效应值分别为0.069、 – 0.020和0.535;政府媒介信任和非政府媒介信任分别对正向情绪产生直接效应,效应值分别为0.233和0.043;政府媒介信任和非政府媒介信任分别对负向情绪产生直接效应,效应值分别为 – 0.169和0.229;媒介信任到风险行为决策的作用路径中,情绪起部分中介效应;媒介信任到风险行为决策的作用路径中,风险感知起部分中介效应;媒介信任到风险感知的作用路径中,负向情绪起部分中介效应;负向情绪到风险行为决策的作用路径中,风险感知起部分中介效用;其中政府媒介信任和非政府媒介信任对风险感知和负向情绪对风险行为决策的直接效应与间接效应方向相反,属于“遮掩效应”。
      结论  “风险IEPB”模型在理论和实证中结果良好,能够体现出公众在突发公共卫生事件下的风险行为决策产生的机制框架,较好地反映出各变量间的影响关系,对公众的风险行为干预靶点提供了理论支撑。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To construct a theoretical framework of information-emotion-perception-behavior chain model (abbreviated as ‘risk IEPB’ model) for the public′s response to major public health emergencies and to examine relationships among components of the model.
      Methods  A mechanism framework for the ‘risk IEPB’ model was constructed first with literature studies. Then an online survey on the variables in the constructed model was conducted among 19 132 internet media users in 31 provincial-level administration regions with self-designed questionnaires during 3 – 13 of August, 2020. AMOS24.0 statistical software was used to test the model and bootstrap method was used to test the mediating effect of the variables in the model.
      Results  The constructed model is of a relatively high goodness-of-fit, with the values of 46.498 for chi-square minimum/degree of freedom (CMIN/DF), 0.049 for root mean square error of approximation (RMSEA), 0.946 for goodness-of-fit index (GFI), 0.934 for adjusted goodness-of-fit index (AGFI), 0.933 for normed fit index (NFI), 0.923 for relative fit index (RFI), 0.934 for incremental fit index (IFI), 0.819 for parsimony normed fit index (PNFI), and 0.772 for parsimony goodness-of-fit index (PGFI), respectively. The mediating effect analysis indicated that direct effect on decision-making for behaviors about major public health emergency risk is significant for following variables: trust in government media (effect value = 0.525), trust in non-government media (– 0.037), positive emotion (0.136), negative emotion (– 0.071), and risk perception (0.027); trust in government media, trust in non-government media, and negative emotion affect risk perception directly, with the effect values of 0.069, – 0.020, and 0.535, but the direct effect of positive emotion on risk perception is not statistically significant (P ≥ 0.05); trust in government and non-government media exert direct effect on both positive emotion (effect value = 0.233 and 0.043) and negative emotion (effect value = – 0.169 and 0.229). Emotion plays a partial mediating role in the interaction path between trust in media and risky behavior-related decision-making. In the interaction path between trust in media and risky behavior-related decision-making, risk perception plays a partial mediating role. In the pathway from trust in media to risk perception, negative emotion plays a partial mediating role; in the path of negative emotion to risky behavior-related decision-making, risk perception plays a partial mediating role. The direct and indirect effect of trust in government and non-government media on risk perception and of negative emotion on risky behavior-related decision-making are opposite, which belongs to ‘masking effect’.
      Conclusion  The constructed ‘risk IEPB’ model is of good theoretical and empirical significance, which can reflect the mechanism framework of decision-making for risky behaviors related to public health emergencies and interactive relationships among relevant variables, suggesting that the model could provide a theoretical support for interventions on public health emergency-related risky behaviors in the public.

     

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