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李振伟, 杜宛毓, 王文静, 尹超男, 王海涛, 赵琳, 曹务春. 中国内地2010 — 2017年疟疾流行趋势及时空分布特征分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(9): 1203-1208. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134794
引用本文: 李振伟, 杜宛毓, 王文静, 尹超男, 王海涛, 赵琳, 曹务春. 中国内地2010 — 2017年疟疾流行趋势及时空分布特征分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(9): 1203-1208. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134794
LI Zhen-wei, DU Wan-yu, WANG Wen-jing, . Trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of malaria in mainland China – 2010 to 2017: an analysis on national registration data[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(9): 1203-1208. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134794
Citation: LI Zhen-wei, DU Wan-yu, WANG Wen-jing, . Trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of malaria in mainland China – 2010 to 2017: an analysis on national registration data[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(9): 1203-1208. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1134794

中国内地2010 — 2017年疟疾流行趋势及时空分布特征分析

Trend and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of malaria in mainland China – 2010 to 2017: an analysis on national registration data

  • 摘要:
      目的  了解中国疟疾的流行趋势及时空分布特征,为巩固我国疟疾防治成果提供参考。
      方法  收集2010 — 2017年中国内地31个省(自治区、直辖市)的疟疾发病率数据,对其进行经验模态分解,识别出发病率的总体变化趋势并采用数学模型进行估计,得到发病率的年度变化量;采用ArcGIS10.7和SaTScan 9.6软件对发病率数据进行空间分析。
      结果  2010 — 2017年中国内地共报告疟疾29687例,0~19岁以及 ≥ 55岁的各个年龄组的发病类型以间日疟为主,其余各年龄组发病类型主要为恶性疟,发病率总体上呈现下降趋势(OR = 0.441,95 % CI = 0.375~0.508)。疟疾发病率的热点主要集中在我国西南边境和部分沿海地区,冷点地区分布不明显;疟疾的发病率存在5个时空聚集区,其中高发聚集区出现的时间主要集中在2013年之前;疟疾发病率的重心总体上呈由西向东,由南向北移动的趋势,发病率的空间范围扩展以东部省份为主。
      结论  2010 — 2017年中国内地疟疾发病总体呈下降的趋势,西南及东部地区疟疾的发生风险较高。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To analyze prevalence trend of malaria and its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics in China for further promoting malaria control.
      Methods  Nationwide malaria incidence data of 2010 – 2017 were collected from public health science data website of Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the population data were extracted from yearly China Statistical Yearbook of the same period. Empirical mode decomposition was adopted to identify the overall trend of malaria incidence and mathematical models were constructed to estimate variations in annual malaria incidence rate; ArcGIS 10.7 and SaTScan 9.01 software were utilized in spatial analysis of the incidence data.
      Results  Totally 29 687 malaria cases were reported in mainland China during the 8-year period, primarily with vivax malaria cases aged 0 – 20 and ≥ 55 years and falciparum malaria cases aged 21 – 54 years. The overall incidence showed a significantly downward trend (odds ratio = 0.441, 95% confidence interval: 0.375 – 0.508). The hot spots of malaria incidence were mainly concentrated in the southwest border and some coastal areas of China but no obvious clustering of cold spots was observed. Totally 5 regions with spatio-temporal clustering of malaria incidence were identified and the high incidence clusters occurred mainly before 2013. Standard deviation ellipse analysis demonstrated that the region with higher malaria incidence drifted generally from southwestern area to northeastern area and the spatial range of malaria epidemic expanded to eastern provinces during the period.
      Conclusion  From 2010 to 2017 in mainland China, the malaria incidence displayed downward trend generally and populations in southwestern and eastern regions were at a higher risk of malaria incidence.

     

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