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沈淑媛, 张良文, 方亚. 中国失能老年人非正式照护需求预测研究进展[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(6): 821-824. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1136510
引用本文: 沈淑媛, 张良文, 方亚. 中国失能老年人非正式照护需求预测研究进展[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(6): 821-824. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1136510
SHEN Shu-yuan, ZHANG Liang-wen, FANG Ya. Predicting demand of informal care for disabled elderly in China – a review on research progress[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(6): 821-824. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1136510
Citation: SHEN Shu-yuan, ZHANG Liang-wen, FANG Ya. Predicting demand of informal care for disabled elderly in China – a review on research progress[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(6): 821-824. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1136510

中国失能老年人非正式照护需求预测研究进展

Predicting demand of informal care for disabled elderly in China – a review on research progress

  • 摘要: 随着中国人口老龄化进程日益加快,老年抚养比逐渐上升,家庭照顾功能不断减弱,非正式照护呈现出供需失衡态势。目前越来越多的学者对我国失能老年人口规模、非正式照护强度和成本等开展需求预测研究,但总体缺乏系统性梳理与归纳,为此本文运用文献研究和比较分析法对非正式照护的研究方法及预测内容进行了梳理与总结。目前我国非正式照护的研究在方法上主要聚焦于宏观模拟预测法,缺乏对于宏观和微观模拟方法的综合运用,预测精度不高;在内容上以照护成本预测为主,对照护强度和照护来源的预测鲜有涉及。因此建议在未来研究中需着重围绕照护强度、照护来源和照护成本三方面进行深入探索,并综合运用宏观与微观模拟预测法逐步提升模型的精确度和需求预测的全面性,从而为政府决策部门合理分配照护资源和保障养老保障事业的可持续发展提供参考。

     

    Abstract: With the acceleration of population aging process, the dependency ratio of the elderly is gradually rising, the function of family care is weakening, and informal care presents an imbalance between supply and demand in China. More and more scholars have carried out studies on predicting the population size of disabled elderly, the intensity and cost of informal care in China, but there is a lack of systematic generalization. This study summarizes research methods and prediction content of informal care through literature research and comparative analysis, providing a basis for comprehensive demand prediction. Currently in China, researches on informal care focus on macrosimulation approach, with a deficit in comprehensive application of macrosimulation and microsimulation approach, and the involved models are not accurate enough. In terms of the prediction content, the researches are mainly devoted to the prediction of care cost but rarely to the prediction of care intensity and source. Therefore, future researches should concern with in-depth exploration of care intensity, care source and care cost, and comprehensively use macrosimulation and microsimulation approach to improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of prediction models.

     

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