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周锐, 高卓维, 黄华聪, 剧永乐. 低分化和未分化胃癌患者预后影响因素分析及诺谟图模型构建[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(2): 158-163. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1137689
引用本文: 周锐, 高卓维, 黄华聪, 剧永乐. 低分化和未分化胃癌患者预后影响因素分析及诺谟图模型构建[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(2): 158-163. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1137689
ZHOU Rui, GAO Zhuo-wei, HUANG Hua-cong, . Prognostic factors of poorly differentiated and undifferentiated gastric cancer: a SEER database-based analysis and construction of prognostic nomogram model[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(2): 158-163. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1137689
Citation: ZHOU Rui, GAO Zhuo-wei, HUANG Hua-cong, . Prognostic factors of poorly differentiated and undifferentiated gastric cancer: a SEER database-based analysis and construction of prognostic nomogram model[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(2): 158-163. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1137689

低分化和未分化胃癌患者预后影响因素分析及诺谟图模型构建

Prognostic factors of poorly differentiated and undifferentiated gastric cancer: a SEER database-based analysis and construction of prognostic nomogram model

  • 摘要:
      目的  了解低分化和未分化胃癌患者预后的影响因素,并构建胃癌患者的预后诺谟图模型,为胃癌患者的生存预后评估提供参考依据。
      方法  应用SEER*Stat 8.3.9.2软件提取2000 — 2018年监测、流行病学和结果(SEER)数据库中美国国立癌症研究所(NCI)登记的9223例美国部分州县医院诊断为低分化和未分化胃癌患者的相关数据,应用多因素 Cox比例风险回归模型分析患者预后的主要影响因素,并构建诺谟图模型通过校正曲线评估其对胃癌患者预后的预测价值。
      结果   9223例低分化和未分化胃癌患者的平均生存时间为(31.05 ± 29.12)个月,总生存率为29.3 %,其中第1、3、5年的生存率分别为62.4 %、36.4 %、18.6 %;多因素Cox比例风险回归分析结果显示,年龄 ≥ 60岁、黑种人、肿瘤N1~N3期、肿瘤II~III期、肿瘤直径5~10 cm、原发部位为胃窦/幽门及其他部位和术前放疗是影响低分化和未分化胃癌患者预后的危险因素,女性、亚太黄种人、其他组织学类型、手术和化疗是影响低分化和未分化胃癌患者预后的保护因素;以年龄、肿瘤T分期、肿瘤N分期、肿瘤分期、是否手术、是否化疗6个因素构建1、3、5年生存率诺谟图并绘制校正曲线,结果显示,1、3、5年生存率的校正曲线与诺谟图的预测结果均吻合较好。
      结论  性别、年龄、种族、肿瘤N分期、肿瘤分期、肿瘤直径、原发部位、组织学类型、手术情况、放疗情况和化疗情况是低分化和未分化胃癌患者预后的主要影响因素,本研究构建的诺谟图模型对低分化和未分化胃癌患者生存预后具有良好的预测价值。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To explore factors affecting the prognosis of poorly differentiated and undifferentiated gastric cancer and to construct a prognostic nomogram model on survival prediction of the cancer patients for providing a reference to the assessment on prognosis of gastric cancer patients.
      Methods  The data on National Cancer Institute (NCI)-registered 9 223 patients with poorly differentiated and undifferentiated gastric cancer were extracted from the 2000 – 2018 database of Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program with SEER*Stat 8.3.9.2. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression model was adopted to explore main factors influencing the prognosis of the patients and nomogram diagram was constructed to evaluate main factors′ significance in prognosis prediction combined with correction curve.
      Results  For all the patients, the average survival time was 31.05 ± 29.12 months; the overall survival rate was 29.3% and the 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rate were 62.4%, 36.4%, and 18.6%, respectively. The results of Cox model analysis revealed that aged ≥ 60 years, black race, II/III tumor stage, first/second/third node stage, tumor size of 5 – 10 centimeters, primary tumor at antrum/pylorus and other sites than cardia/fundus or corpus of stomach, and preoperative radiotherapy were associated with a poor prognosis; while, female, Asian pacific yellow race, and tumor types other than adenocarcinoma or signet ring cell carcinoma were associated with a better prognosis. The constructed nomogram diagram based on 6 influencing factors (age, tumor stage, node stage, overall tumor staging, surgery, and chemotherapy) showed prognostic predictions well consistent with those from the correction curves for 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rate.
      Conclusion  The prognosis of patients with poorly differentiated and undifferentiated gastric cancer is mainly influenced by gender, age, race, node stage, overall tumor staging, tumor size, primary site, histological type, surgery, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy. The constructed nomogram diagram is of good prognostic value for predicting the patients′ survival.

     

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