Objective  To examine changing trend in disease burden of Alzheimer′s disease and other dementias in China for providing suggestions to prevention and treatment of senile dementia.

  Methods  The data on the incidence, mortality, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability adjusted life years (DALY) of Alzheimer′s disease and other dementias in Chinese population aged 55 years and above during 1990 – 2019 were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019). The effects of age, period and cohort on the disease burden due to senile dementia were assessed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model. The incidence rate of senile dementia in next 30 years in China were also predicted based on the estimated changing trend in senile dementia morbidity and population profile.

  Results  The analyses revealed following changing trends for senile dementia during the 30-year period in China: increasing in standardized incidence rate, standardized YLD rate and standardized DALY rate but decreasing in standardized mortality rate and standardized YLL rate. The results of APC model analysis showed that the risk of senile dementia increased with age and time series but decreased with year of birth during the period. The prediction results showed that the incidence rate of senile dementia would continue to rise in the next 30 years in China according to predictive analysis using Bayesian APC model. The estimated incidence rate of senile dementia in 2049 among Chinese population aged 55 – 94 years is 9.651‰ and the estimated incidence rate is 11.419‰ and 7.302‰ for female and male elderly population.

  Conclusion  The disease burden of senile dementia increased in China during 1990 – 2019 and the increase in senile dementia risk was dominantly influenced by age effect and period effect. A continuous increase in the incidence rate of the disease, especially among elderly female population, is predicted. The results suggest that targeted health education and specific intervention program should be promoted for the control of the disease in the elderly population.