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陈丹, 程潇, 方鹏骞, 梅筱萱, 白雪, 梅文华. EARS-3Cs模型在中国口岸城市呼吸道传染病监测预警中应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(9): 1164-1169. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1138452
引用本文: 陈丹, 程潇, 方鹏骞, 梅筱萱, 白雪, 梅文华. EARS-3Cs模型在中国口岸城市呼吸道传染病监测预警中应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2022, 38(9): 1164-1169. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1138452
CHEN Dan, CHENG Xiao, FANG Peng-qian, . Application of EARS-3Cs model in monitoring and early warning of infectious respiratory diseases in a port city in China: an empirical analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(9): 1164-1169. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1138452
Citation: CHEN Dan, CHENG Xiao, FANG Peng-qian, . Application of EARS-3Cs model in monitoring and early warning of infectious respiratory diseases in a port city in China: an empirical analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2022, 38(9): 1164-1169. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1138452

EARS-3Cs模型在中国口岸城市呼吸道传染病监测预警中应用

Application of EARS-3Cs model in monitoring and early warning of infectious respiratory diseases in a port city in China: an empirical analysis

  • 摘要:
      目的  探索EARS-3Cs模型在中国口岸城市呼吸道传染病监测预警中的应用,为提高口岸城市呼吸道传染病的预警能力及降低呼吸道传染病疫情风险提供参考依据。
      方法  以课题组前期研究得到的呼吸道传染病多源数据预警指标体系为基础,通过专家小组讨论法筛选预警核心监测指标,应用EARS-3Cs模型测算广东省珠海市疾病预防控制中心2021年4月15日 — 5月15日报告的新型冠状病毒肺炎预警核心监测指标的预警综合指数分值。
      结果  EARS-3Cs模型在中国口岸城市呼吸道传染病预警中C1、C2和C3值预警的警情天数分别为1~2、3和5~9 d,预警的敏感性依次递增;珠海市的预警结果显示,该市5个区出现新型冠状病毒肺炎中高风险暴发的时期可能为2021年4月30日 — 5月7日,与口岸城市的人口流动性陡然增加有明显关系。
      结论  EARS-3Cs模型对中国口岸城市呼吸道传染病监测预警具有一定的科学性和合理性。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To explore the application of the three Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) cusum algorithms (C1, C2 and C3) (EARS-3Cs) model in the monitoring and early warning of infectious respiratory diseases in port cities in China and to provide a reference for improving early warning capacity for infectious respiratory diseases in port cities and controlling the risk of infectious respiratory disease epidemics.
      Methods  Major indicators of early warning for infectious respiratory disease epidemic were selected based on a multi-source data early warning index system constructed by our previous studies and 8 core indicators were screened out with expert group discussions. From reports of Center for Disease Control and Prevention of Zhuhai city – a port city in Guangdong province from April 15 to May 15, 2021, we extracted daily monitoring data on the 8 core indicators for early warming of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) epidemic in the 5 districts of the city and daily district-specific values of C1, C2 and C3 of EARS model were calculated with SPSS 21.0 for making early wearing of the epidemic.
      Results  According to the calculated values of C1, C2 and C3, the number of days with the warning of infectious respiratory disease are 1 – 2 days, 3 days and 5 – 9 days for the city during the epidemic period. The sensitivity of the C1, C2 and C3 for early warning increases sequentially. Indicated by the EARS-3Cs model- derived early warning, the period with moderate risk of COVID19 epidemic could be from April 30 to May 7 for the 5 districts of the city and the period was characterized by a sudden increase in the population mobility in Zhuhai city.
      Conclusion  The EARS-3Cs model is of certain scientificity and rationality when applied in monitoring and early warning of infectious respiratory diseases for port cities in China.

     

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