高级检索
张梦鸽, 李传苍, 孟晶婧, 屈梦冰, 蔡倩, 范浩浩, 孙亮. 中国居民2008 — 2020年故意伤害死亡趋势分析及预测[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(5): 627-632. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1139482
引用本文: 张梦鸽, 李传苍, 孟晶婧, 屈梦冰, 蔡倩, 范浩浩, 孙亮. 中国居民2008 — 2020年故意伤害死亡趋势分析及预测[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2023, 39(5): 627-632. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1139482
shu
ZHANG Mengge, LI Chuancang, MENG Jingjing, . Intentional injury mortality among Chinese residents: 2008 – 2020 surveillance data-based trend analysis and prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(5): 627-632. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1139482
Citation: ZHANG Mengge, LI Chuancang, MENG Jingjing, . Intentional injury mortality among Chinese residents: 2008 – 2020 surveillance data-based trend analysis and prediction[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2023, 39(5): 627-632. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws1139482
shu

中国居民2008 — 2020年故意伤害死亡趋势分析及预测

Intentional injury mortality among Chinese residents: 2008 – 2020 surveillance data-based trend analysis and prediction

    摘要
  • 摘要:
      目的  了解中国居民2008 — 2020年故意伤害死亡趋势并对2021 — 2025年的故意伤害死亡率进行预测，为开展故意伤害预防工作提供参考依据。
      方法  收集《中国死因监测数据集（2008 — 2020）》中各死因监测点人口和分性别、年龄段、地区和城乡的故意伤害死亡数据，通过计算故意伤害粗死亡率和标化死亡率来描述死亡状况，采用Joinpoint回归分析模型分析标化死亡率变化趋势，并应用灰色模型预测2021 — 2025年的故意伤害死亡率。
      结果  中国居民故意伤害、自杀及后遗症、他杀及后遗症的标化死亡率分别从2008年的11.10/10万、10.11/10万和1.01/10万下降到2020年的5.76/10万、5.42/10万和0.31/10万（AAPC = – 5.85%、 – 5.62%、 – 10.77%，均P < 0.001）；男性和女性居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的12.77/10万和9.70/10万下降到2020年的6.99/10万和4.58/10万（AAPC = – 5.50%和 – 6.12%，均P < 0.001），其中女性居民2008 — 2018年故意伤害标化死亡率呈下降趋势（APC = – 7.31%，P < 0.001），而2018 — 2020年故意伤害标化死亡率虽有上升但差异无统计学意义（APC = 0.04%，P = 0.995）；1 ~ 4、15 ~ 44、45 ~ 64和 ≥ 65岁居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的0.02/10万、0.59/10万、0.86/10万和0.77/10万下降到2020年0.01/10万、0.31/10万、0.46/10万和0.39/10万（AAPC = – 6.01%、 – 5.37%、 – 5.42%和 – 6.17%，均P < 0.01）；东部地区、中部地区和西部地区居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的9.08/10万、14.37/10万和10.73/10万下降到2020年的4.77/10万、6.92/10万和5.90/10万（AAPC = – 5.53%、 – 6.07%和 – 5.42%，均P < 0.001）；城市和农村居民故意伤害的标化死亡率分别从2008年的6.69/10万和14.06/10万下降到2020年的4.18/10万和6.67/10万(AAPC = – 4.56%和 – 6.71%，均P < 0.001）；灰色模型预测结果显示，中国居民2021、2022、2023、2024和2025年故意伤害死亡率依次为6.07/10万、5.83/10万、5.60/10万、5.38/10万和5.16/10万。
      结论  中国居民2008 — 2020年及未来5年故意伤害死亡率均持续下降。

     

    Abstract:
      Objective  To examine the trend in intentional injury mortality during 2008 – 2020 among Chinese residents and to predict the mortality rate of years of 2021 – 2025 in the population for providing evidence to intentional injury prevention.
      Methods  The data on gender-, age-, region-specific intentional injury mortality for years of 2008 – 2020 among the populations of surveillance sites across China were extracted from National Cause-of-Death Surveillance Dataset. Yearly crude and standardized rate were calculated to describe intentional injury mortality. Joinpoint regression analysis model was used to analyze changing trend in standardized mortality rates, and grey model was applied to predict intentional injury mortality rates for years of 2021 – 2025.
      Results  For the whole population surveyed, the standardized mortality rate (per 100 000) decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for intentional injury (from 11.10 to 5.76 ), suicide and sequelae (10.11 to 5.42), and homicide and sequelae (1.01 to 0.31) (average annual percent change AAPC = – 5.85%, – 5.62%, – 10.77%) (all P < 0.001), respectively. For the male population, the standardized mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 12.77 to 6.99 during the whole period (P < 0.001, APPC = – 5.50%); while, for the female population, there was a significant decrease from 2010 to 2018 (annual percent change APC = – 7.31%, P < 0.001) but a unsignificant increase from 2018 to 2020 (APC = 0.04%, P = 0.995) in the standardized mortality rate, though the rate decreased significantly from 9.70 to 4.58 for the whole period from 2008 to 2020 (P < 0.001, APPC = – 6.12%). The mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for the populations aged 1 – 4 years (0.02 to 0.01, AAPC = – 6.01%), 15 – 44 years (0.59 to 0.31, AAPC = – 5.37), 45 – 64 years (0.86 to 0.46, AAPC = – 5.42%), and ≥ 65 years (0.77 to 0.39, AAPC = – 6.17%) (P < 0.01 for all). The standardized mortality rate of intentional injury decreased significantly from 2008 to 2020 for the populations in eastern region (9.08 to 4.77, AAPC = – 5.53%), central region (14.37 to 6.92, AAPC = – 6.07%), and western region (10.73 to 5.90, AAPC = – 5.42%) and also for the populations in urban regions (6.69 to 4.18, AAPC = – 4.56%) and rural regions (14.06 to 6.67, AAPC = – 6.71%) (P < 0.001 for all). The predicted annual mortality rate of intentional injury from 2021 to 2025 for the population surveyed were 6.07, 5.83, 5.60, 5.38, and 5.16 based on grey model analysis.
      Conclusion  The intentional injury mortality rate for Chinese residents from 2008 to 2020 and in the next five years shows a continuous downward trend.

     

    • HTML全文
    • 参考文献(29)
    • 相关文章
    • 施引文献
  • 资源附件(0)

/

返回文章
返回