某地区吸毒人群中HIV/AIDS流行趋势预测

叶健莉; 吕繁; 金水高

doi:10.11847/zgggws2005-21-08-44

某地区吸毒人群中HIV/AIDS流行趋势预测

HIV/AIDS dynamic model in drug users in a certain region

YE Jianli,
JIN Shuigao,

摘要

摘要:
目的建立通过静脉吸毒感染HIV/AIDS的传播动力学模型, 进行短期预测, 为制定HIV/AIDS预防控制措施提供依据。
方法根据系统动力学原理, 建立某地区吸毒人群HIV/AIDS传播动力学模型。利用该地区2001~2004年吸毒哨点的血清学感染率和行为学参数等资料, 在保持现有参数不变的条件下, 预测出2005年底的HIV感染率、现存HIV感染者人数、现存AIDS病人数、新发HIV人数和新发AIDS人数。并对参数进行灵敏度分析, 找出对HIV/AIDS传播起重要作用的灵敏参数。
结果根据所建立的模型预测出该地区到2005年底现存的HIV感染者有2982人, AIDS病人有277人。吸毒人群中HIV感染率可以达到13.2%。参数的灵敏度分析可以得到每次共用针具的有效传播概率、注射频率、与别人共用针具的概率是敏感参数。
结论对针具进行有效的消毒, 降低注射频率、减少与别人共用针具的机会可以减缓疫情在吸毒人群中的传播。

Abstract:
Objective To constructhIV/AIDS dynamic model in drug users in a certain region and to predict the near future.
Methods HIV/AIDS dynamic model in drugusers was built based on the prevalence and behavior parameters of the surveillance data in 2001~2004.According to this model, people living with HIV and AIDS, new HIV and AIDS in the end of 2005 were predicted based on the current parameter.And sensitivity of parameters was analyzed.
Results On the basis of the current parameter, people living with HIV and AIDS will reach 2 982 and 277 in the end of 2005.In the second surveillance period(October to November)in 2005 the prevalence in drug user will reach 13.2%.Parameters sensitivity analysis showed that transmit probability by sharing needle, injecting number per unit time and sharing probability were the most sensitive parameters.
Conclusion Sterilizing the needling, decreasing the injecting frequency and less probability of sharing needle with others are taken to control epidemic in drug users.

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