山东省HIV/AIDS流行状况分析及预测
Analysis on HIV/AIDS epidemics trend in Shandong
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摘要:目的 分析山东省艾滋病流行状况, 为政府制定艾滋病控制策略提供依据。方法 依据全省的艾滋病病例报告、各类监测报表、专项流行病学调查等资料; 用SPSS软件进行分析; 用工作簿(WORKBOOK)对全省高危人群基数和艾滋病疫情进行预测; 采集HIV感染阳性者外周静脉防凝血, 提取核酸, 进行基因序列测定和亚型分析。结果 截止2004年底, 山东省累计报告艾滋病病毒感染者436例, 艾滋病病人152例, 死亡65例; 预测全省现有感染者7 000余人。17个省辖市有16个市的68个县(市区)有疫情报告; 感染方式仍以血液途径传播为主, 但性传播呈明显上升趋势, HIV感染人数呈快速增长趋势, 近2年检出数占13年总数的68.2%。全省存在多种HIV病毒株亚型, 已检出B、B'C等3种亚型以及CRF07-BC、CRF08-BC、CRF01-AG和CRFD1-AE等4种重组毒株。结论 山东省HIV感染已进入快速增长阶段, 艾滋病在我省人群、地域分布广泛, 同时具有明显的地区和人群聚集性; 艾滋病发病和死亡人数将持续增加; 艾滋病流行由吸毒、献血员、卖淫嫖娼等高危人群向一般人群传播; 女性感染者所占比例有较大幅度增加, 母婴传播危险性增大。Abstract:Objective To analyze HIV/AI DSepidemic conditions in Shandong province and provide data for the government to work out strategies on HIV/AIDS control and prevention.Methods According to the data from Surveillance reports, behavior surveillance and special epidemilogical investigations, EXCEL data base was established.Statistical analysis of data was performed with the used of SPSSand using the WORKBOOK to estimate and forecast the base data and epidemic situation among the high-risk population of Shandong.The peripheral venous blood from HIV positive cases was collected to detect gene sequence and analysis subtype.Results By the end of 2004, there were 436 HIVinfected people, 172 AIDS patients and 65 deaths of AIDS.It was estimated that there were 7 000-odd infected perso ns amo ng Shandong province, HIV/AIDS cases were reported in 68 counties of 16 prefectures.The moods of HIV/AIDS transmission were mainly blood contract, but the proportion of sexual transmission was rising.Subtype analysis showed that there were 3 subtypes and 4 recombinant strains among the population which could be followed up.Conclusion The epidemic of HIV/AIDS is on a rapid rising trnd in Shangdong province.More HIV infected cases will be found inthe general population.Because of the risiing of sexual transmission, effective measures should be taken to prevent and control HIV/AIDS epidemic.
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