青少年体质指数预测偏高血压中曲线分析应用

徐轶群; 季成叶; 马军; 潘勇平; 尹遵栋

doi:10.11847/zgggws2006-22-11-37

青少年体质指数预测偏高血压中曲线分析应用

Appliance of ROC analysis on prediction of body mass index on relative high blood pressure in adolescents

摘要

摘要:
目的分析体质指数(BMI)预测偏高血压者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积, 观察中国儿童青少年超重、肥胖BMI分类标准超重、肥胖界值点预测偏高血压的灵敏度和特异度.
方法随机抽选1 850名14~16岁北京中学生, 测量身高、体重和血压.按中国儿童青少年超重、肥胖BMI分类标准, 观察各组血压分布, 绘制ROC曲线, 观察曲线下面积, 计算超重、肥胖界值点的灵敏度、特异度.
结果 BMI预测偏高血压ROC曲线下面积均 > 0.5(男0.789;女0.680, P < 0.001).超重界值点比肥胖有更高灵敏度, 而肥胖的界值点具有良好的特异度.
结论 BMI预测偏高血压具有良好的有效性, 且男生优于女生.

Abstract:
Objective To identify the use of body mass index(BMI)to predict the relative high blood pressure in Beijing youth, and analyze the sensitivity and specificity according to the Chinese BMIcriteria for children and adolescents.
Methods 1850 subjects(995 boys and 855 girls)aged 14~16 were randomly selected, and their body weight, height and blood pressures were measured.
Results operating characteristic(ROC)analysis was performed by using BMIas predictors.
Results BMI values could predicthigh blood pressure with the areas under the ROCcurve, which was 0.789 for boys and 0.680 for girls(both, P < 0.001).Cut-offs of over weight gave better sensitivity than that of the obesity, whereas the specificity of the obesity cut-offs of obesity hade much higher specificity.
Conclusion BMImay predicthigh blood pressure with a reasonable profile of sensitivity and specificity, especially in boys.

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