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程锦泉, 刘建平, 张仁利, 庾蕾, 彭绩, 池洪珊, 聂绍发. 深圳市脑卒中发病与气温关系[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2007, 23(8): 970-971. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-38
引用本文: 程锦泉, 刘建平, 张仁利, 庾蕾, 彭绩, 池洪珊, 聂绍发. 深圳市脑卒中发病与气温关系[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2007, 23(8): 970-971. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-38
CHENG Jin-quan, LIU Jian-ping, ZHANG Ren-li, . Relationship between temperature and stroke incidence in Shenzhen[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2007, 23(8): 970-971. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-38
Citation: CHENG Jin-quan, LIU Jian-ping, ZHANG Ren-li, . Relationship between temperature and stroke incidence in Shenzhen[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2007, 23(8): 970-971. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2007-23-08-38

深圳市脑卒中发病与气温关系

Relationship between temperature and stroke incidence in Shenzhen

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨周平均温度与脑卒中发病的关系.方法 采用时间序列的广义相加模型(GAM)建模原理,对2003年1月~2005年12月深圳市脑卒中发病与气象资料进行非参数拟合,在控制长期趋势、季节趋势和周平均湿度以后,分析周平均温度与脑卒中发病人数的关系.结果 2003~2005年,深圳市脑卒中发病15434例,每周平均(99.00±29.56)例,男性周平均发病(59.52±17.93)例,女性周平均发病(39.42±13.86)例;<65岁周平均发病(54.18±18.00)例,≥65岁周平均发病(44.76±13.72)例.控制长期趋势、季节趋势和周平均湿度等因素影响后,低温是诱发深圳市脑卒中发病的主要气象因素,发病随温度降低而升高.分层分析发现,低温对女性或<65岁者脑卒中发病的影响更大,而男性脑卒中发病与气温降低未见明显影响.结论 深圳市脑卒中发病与周平均气温存在线性关系,发病的相对危险度随温度降低而增加;在数据不满足参数拟合条件时,广义相加模型能有效地发现疾病与气象条件的内在关系.

     

    Abstract: Objective To explore the relationship between temperature and stroke incidence in Shenzhen city.Methods When long time trend,season and relative humidity were under control,the relationship between temperature and incidence rate of stroke was explored by generalized additive model(GAM)for the whole population and stratified by sex and age from 2003.1 to 2005.12.Results The number of stroke was 15 434,mean value of weekly number of stroke was(99.00±29.56),mean value of it was(59.52±17.93)in male,and(39.42±13.86)in female from 2003 to 2005 in Shenzhen.Mean value of weekly number of stroke was(54.18±18.00)in less than 65 years old,and(44.76±13.72)in over 65 years old.When those factors were under control,low temperature appeared to be a risk factor to stroke incidence.The incidence of stroke increased along with the decrease of temperature.Stratified by sex and age,it was found that the incidence of stroke increased along with the decrease of temperature in female as well as patients less than 65 years old,but not in male.Conclusion The incidence of stroke was linearly correlated with temperature,the relative risk of the incidence of stroke increased along with the decrease of temperature.GAM can be effectively used to explore the association of temperature with diseases incapable of being fitted by parameter model.

     

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