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荣幸, 田祎, 刘增艳, 聂绍发. 武汉城市圈重大疾病预警指标体系构建及评价[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2013, 29(7): 985-988. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-14
引用本文: 荣幸, 田祎, 刘增艳, 聂绍发. 武汉城市圈重大疾病预警指标体系构建及评价[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2013, 29(7): 985-988. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-14
RONG Xing, TIAN Yi, LIU Zeng-yan.et al, . Construction and evaluation of early warning index system for major diseases in Wuhan metropolitan area[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2013, 29(7): 985-988. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-14
Citation: RONG Xing, TIAN Yi, LIU Zeng-yan.et al, . Construction and evaluation of early warning index system for major diseases in Wuhan metropolitan area[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2013, 29(7): 985-988. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-14

武汉城市圈重大疾病预警指标体系构建及评价

Construction and evaluation of early warning index system for major diseases in Wuhan metropolitan area

  • 摘要: 目的构建适合湖北武汉城市圈重大疾病流行特点的预警指标体系,并通过实证研究对其进行评价。方法采用Delphi法构建指标体系,甄选16名省内外专家和武汉城市圈9大城市的18名管理和工作人员参与研究,结合层次分析法确定指标权重,通过实证研究对指标体系的信度、效度和权重设置的合理性进行评价。结果 "武汉城市圈重大疾病预警指标体系"由3项一级指标,10项二级指标和41项三级指标组成,专家权威系数和熟悉程度均 >0.90,总指标体系和一级指标的克朗巴哈α系数及半分信度系数分均 >0.80,三级指标与所属一级指标相关系数均数 >0.51,大于它与其他一级指标的相关系数,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),指标重要性评分与综合评分一致性检验显示Kendall Wa=0.730(P<0.05)。结论 预警指标体系具有良好的信度和效度,权重系数设置合理。

     

    Abstract: Objective To construct an early warning index system for major diseases in Wuhan metropolitan area according to epidemic features of the diseases,and to evaluate the index system by a case study.Methods Two rounds of Delphi experts' consultation were applied to construct the early warning index system.The indexes' weights were defined by analytic hierarchy process and experts' evaluation.Reliability,validity of the index system and the rationality of index weight distribution were evaluated in site investigation.Results The Early Warning Index System of Major Diseases in Wuhan Metropolitan Area included 3 first class indexes,9 second class indexes and 41 third class indexes.The active coefficients of experts in the two rounds of Delphi investigation were 93.75% and 100%;the familiarity degree was 0.91±0.07;the authority degree was 0.92±0.04;the Kendall Wa coefficients were 0.383 and 0.500.The results showed that all the experts had a satisfactory concordance in all the index and there was no need for another round Delphi investigation.The Cronbach's alpha and spit half reliability of the total index system and three first class indexes were all over 0.80;the mean of Spearman correlation coefficients of every third class index with the first class index of the same domain was over 0.51 and the mean of correlation coefficients of every third class index with first class indexes of other domain was equal or less than 0.51,with significant differences (P<0.05).The Kendall Wa coefficient for the data collected in site investigation and Delphi consultation was 0.730 (P<0.030).Conclusion The Early Warning Index System of Major Diseases in Wuhan Metropolitan Area includes cadiovascular diseases,respiratory diseases,and enteric infectious diseases.The reliability and validity of the index system ware satisfactory and the index weight distribution is rational.The index system might be useful in the early warning of major diseases in Wuhan metropolitan area.

     

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