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杨丽, 周浩, 车明杰, 刘金茹, 关欣, 刘晓波, 马家奇, 王建. 哈尔滨市2005-2009年流感相关超额死亡分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2013, 29(7): 1031-1033. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-30
引用本文: 杨丽, 周浩, 车明杰, 刘金茹, 关欣, 刘晓波, 马家奇, 王建. 哈尔滨市2005-2009年流感相关超额死亡分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2013, 29(7): 1031-1033. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-30
YANG Li, ZHOU Hao, CHE Ming-jie.et al, . Influenza-related excess mortality in Harbin city, 2005-2009[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2013, 29(7): 1031-1033. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-30
Citation: YANG Li, ZHOU Hao, CHE Ming-jie.et al, . Influenza-related excess mortality in Harbin city, 2005-2009[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2013, 29(7): 1031-1033. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2013-29-07-30

哈尔滨市2005-2009年流感相关超额死亡分析

Influenza-related excess mortality in Harbin city, 2005-2009

  • 摘要: 目的了解黑龙江省哈尔滨市2005-2009年流感可能导致的超额死亡,为流感防控提供参考。方法利用中国疾病预防控制中心基于人群的疾病监测系统中死因数据、国家流感中心流感病原学监测数据、气象数据(平均温度和湿度),分别采用率差模型和Poisson回归模型估算哈尔滨市2005-2009年流感相关超额死亡数。结果 2005-2009年哈尔滨市流感每年流行周数为9周左右,流行优势菌株为H1N1、H3N2和B型。2005-2009年哈尔滨市流感相关平均每周超额死亡率为2.69/10万。率差模型计算显示5年哈尔滨市超额死亡数为15 310人,其中0岁~组、1岁~组、15岁~组、50岁~组和65岁~组分别为414、64、2 210、3 600、7 727人。Poisson回归模型计算显示5年哈尔滨市超额死亡数为12 326人,其中0岁~组、1岁~组、15岁~组、50岁~组和65岁~组分别为290、33、1 569、2 988、7 184人。结论 哈尔滨市流感导致的超额死亡较高,主要发生在冬春季节,流行优势菌株为H1N1,其次为H3N2,B型较少。

     

    Abstract: Objective To examine excess mortality related to influenza epidemics in Harbin city from 2005-2009 and to provide reference for influenza control.Methods The population-based mortality data were collected from the disease surveillance system of China Center for Disease Control and Prevention.The meterological data on average temperature and humidity were also collected.Based on rate differential model and Poisson regression model,the numbers of excess mortality related to influenza epidemics from the year of 2005 to 2009 were calculated.Results The duration of influenza prevalence was about 9 weeks in a year from 2005 to 2009.The prevalent influenza strains were H1N1,H3N2,and type B.From 2005-2009,the average influenza-related excess mortality per week was 3/100 000 in Harbin city.Based on rate differential model,the total number of excess death was 15 310 during the 5 years in the city,with the excess deaths of 290,33,1 569,2 988,and 7 184 for the populations of different age of 0,1-14,15-49,50-64,and ≥65 years,respectively.Conclusion The excess mortality resulted from influenza epidemic in Harbin city was high in 2005-2009.The influenza was prevalent about 9 weeks,mainly in winter and spring,with prevalent stratins of H1N1,H3N2,and type B.Poisson regression model is more acurate in the analysis of influenza-related excess mortalty.

     

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