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杨世宏, 肖丹, 姚伟, 安庆玉, 高晓红. 大连市传染病自动预警系统构建及效果评价[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2015, 31(11): 1505-1508. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2015-31-11-42
引用本文: 杨世宏, 肖丹, 姚伟, 安庆玉, 高晓红. 大连市传染病自动预警系统构建及效果评价[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2015, 31(11): 1505-1508. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2015-31-11-42
YANG Shi-hong, XIAO Dan, YAO Wei.et al, . Establishment and efficiency evaluation of an automatic early warning system for communicable disease incident in Dalian city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2015, 31(11): 1505-1508. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2015-31-11-42
Citation: YANG Shi-hong, XIAO Dan, YAO Wei.et al, . Establishment and efficiency evaluation of an automatic early warning system for communicable disease incident in Dalian city[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2015, 31(11): 1505-1508. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2015-31-11-42

大连市传染病自动预警系统构建及效果评价

Establishment and efficiency evaluation of an automatic early warning system for communicable disease incident in Dalian city

  • 摘要: 目的 建立简单易行的传染病自动预警方法,尽早发现暴发疫情或突发公共卫生事件的发生,指导事件处理。方法 利用《中国疾病预防控制信息系统》中直报的传染病卡片项目信息,自主研发《大连市传染病自动预警系统》,对大连市突发公共卫生事件及暴发疫情进行实时预警。结果 2012-2013年,系统预警传染病突发事件5起,预警灵敏度为71.43%,阳性预测值为55.56%;预警传染病暴发疫情256起,预警灵敏度为89.82%,阳性预测值为67.02% 。与我国现行传染病自动预警信息系统比较,本次开发的预警信息系统灵敏度较高(χ2=409.47,P=0.0000),阳性预测值也较高(χ2=2007.02,P=0.0000)。结论 大连市传染病自动预警系统能够利用网络报告的传染病卡片信息,及时探测到聚集疫情,实现早期预警,且灵敏度及阳性预测值均较高,更适合所辖地域小的地市或区市县级使用。

     

    Abstract: Objective To establish a simple and easy method for automatic early warning for the incident of communicable diseases for early identification and management of epidemic outbreak and public health emergency.Methods An automatic early warning system for communicable disease incident in Dalian city was developed using the information on communicable disease incident report collected through internet from China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention and used for real time warning of epidemic outbreak and public health emergency in Dalian city.Results During the period from 2012 to 2013,the established system issued a total of 5 early warnings for communicable disease emergency,with the sensitivity of 71.43% and the positive prediction value of 55.56%,and a total of 256 early warnings for communicable disease outbreaks,with the sensitivity of 89.92% and the positive prediction value of 67.02%.The system established shows higher sensitivity and positive prediction value compared to the Communicable Disease Automatic Early Warning System currently used in China(χ2=409.47,P=0.0000 and χ2=2007.02,P=0.0000)Conclusion The automatic early warning system for communicable disease incident established by the study could identify communicable disease outbreak and issue real time warning using communicable disease reports through internet with higher sensitivity and positive prediction value and the system could be used more applicably at municipal or county level.

     

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