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杨云, 孙宏, 康正, 吴群红, 田国梅. 卫生应急风险矩阵法与Borda序值法评估[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(6): 815-817. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-06-24
引用本文: 杨云, 孙宏, 康正, 吴群红, 田国梅. 卫生应急风险矩阵法与Borda序值法评估[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(6): 815-817. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-06-24
YANG Yun, SUN Hong, KANG Zheng.et al, . Health emergency assessment:risk matrix and Borda sequence value method[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(6): 815-817. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-06-24
Citation: YANG Yun, SUN Hong, KANG Zheng.et al, . Health emergency assessment:risk matrix and Borda sequence value method[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(6): 815-817. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-06-24

卫生应急风险矩阵法与Borda序值法评估

Health emergency assessment:risk matrix and Borda sequence value method

  • 摘要: 目的 运用风险矩阵法,评估黑龙江省突发公共卫生事件风险状况。方法 以黑龙江省8个县长期在岗并从事卫生应急工作的123名卫生应急专家为研究对象,确定该地区最可能发生的5类突发公共卫生事件,应用风险矩阵法分别从突发公共卫生事件发生的可能性及严重程度了解该事件发生的风险水平并对其进行评价,进一步采用Borda序值法对5类突发公共卫生事件的风险水平进行排序。结果 123名专家共提及32种黑龙江省最可能发生的突发公共卫生事件,提及次数排在前5位的依次是食物中毒(93次)、手足口病(45次)、传染性疾病(39次)、洪涝灾害引发的公共卫生风险(39次)、非职业性一氧化碳中毒(32次);汇总专家对以上5类突发公共卫生事件风险水平的打分,进一步采用Borda序值法确定风险排序,确定这5类突发公共卫生事件风险发生的可能性及严重程度由大到小依次为洪涝灾害引发的公共卫生风险(0)、传染性疾病(1)、非职业性一氧化碳中毒(2)、食物中毒(3)、手足口病(3),手足口病与食物中毒严重性并列排在第4位。结论 综合应用风险矩阵法与Borda序值法是评价某地突发公共卫生事件发生风险水平的有效方法,具有推广应用价值,对于突发公共卫生事件的防控工作具有重要意义。

     

    Abstract: Objective To assess the risk of public health emergency in Heilongjiang province with risk matrix method.Methods A questionnaire survey on 5 types of public health emergencies most likely to be occurred in Heilongjiang province was conducted among 123 experts with long-term professional work experience and selected form 8 counties using Delphi expert consultation method.Risk matrix method was adopted to evaluate the risk of the public health emergencies based on the consideration for the possibility and severity of the emergencies predicted by the experts and then Borda sequence value method was used to category the risk of the emergencies.Results Among the 32 types public health emergencies probably occurred in the province,the top 5 most frequently considered by the 123 experts were food poisoning (93),hand,foot and mouth disease (45),infectious diseases (39),flood-induced public health risk (39),and non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning (32).The results of analyses on the risk scores assigned by the experts surveyed for the top 5 public health emergencies with Borda sequence value method demonstrated that the combined possibility and severity order of the emergencies from high to low were flood-induced public health risk(Borda sequence value:(0),infectious diseases (1),non-occupational carbon monoxide poisoning (2),food poisoning (3),and hand,foot and mouth disease (3),respectively.Conclusion Integrated application of risk matrix method and Borda sequence value method is an effective method to evaluate the risk of public health emergency in a specific region and could be applied in the practice of public health emergency prevention and control.

     

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