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刘宇丹, 夏智勇, 田小兵. 怀孕等待时间离散时间风险模型分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(9): 1249-1252. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-09-30
引用本文: 刘宇丹, 夏智勇, 田小兵. 怀孕等待时间离散时间风险模型分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2016, 32(9): 1249-1252. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-09-30
LIU Yu-dan, XIA Zhi-yong, TIAN Xiao-bing. Application of discrete time risk model to identify factors impacting on time to pregnancy[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(9): 1249-1252. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-09-30
Citation: LIU Yu-dan, XIA Zhi-yong, TIAN Xiao-bing. Application of discrete time risk model to identify factors impacting on time to pregnancy[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2016, 32(9): 1249-1252. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2016-32-09-30

怀孕等待时间离散时间风险模型分析

Application of discrete time risk model to identify factors impacting on time to pregnancy

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨离散时间风险模型分析怀孕等待时间(TTP)的合理性。方法 于2013年10月-2014年1月采用随机整群抽样方法在四川省南充市1家三级甲等医院和3家二级甲等医院抽取346名孕妇进行问卷调查,并建立离散时间风险模型对其TTP进行分析。结果 在离散时间风险模型中不纳入危险因素变量的模型A结果显示,孕妇在<3、4~6和7~12个月的累积怀孕概率分别为60.69%、84.97%和94.51%。在离散时间风险模型中纳入有无人工流产史、计划怀孕时丈夫是否吸烟2个危险因素变量的模型B结果显示,此2个危险因素均不存在时孕妇在<3、4~6和7~12个月的累积怀孕概率分别为65.63%、88.30%、96.06%;人工流产史危险因素存在时孕妇在<3、4~6和7~12个月的累积怀孕概率分别为60.41%、84.46%、93.96%;计划怀孕时丈夫吸烟危险因素存在时孕妇在<3、4~6和7~12个月的累积怀孕概率值分别为61.86%、85.58%、94.61%;此2个危险因素均存在时孕妇在<3、4~6和7~12个月的累积怀孕概率分别为56.46%、81.20%、91.95%。结论 离散时间风险模型能够识别影响TTP的危险因素,并能估计协变量不同取值下各时间段上的累计怀孕概率,是分析TTP资料的合理方法。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate the rationality of discrete time risk (DTR) model in identifying factors influencing time to pregnancy (TTP).Methods A questionnaire survey on TTP was conducted among 346 women taking prenatal examination at a third-grade class A hospital and 3 second-grade class A hospitals selected with random cluster sampling in Nanchong city of Sichuan province between October 2013 and January 2014.Discrete time risk model was adopted to analyze TTP among the women.Results Among the women,the estimated cumulative pregnancy probability (CPP) within 1-3,4-6,and 7-12 months were 60.69%,84.97%,and 94.51% based on the established DTR model A (excluding risk variables for TTP).The DRR model B(including history of induced abortionX1and exposed to smoking of husband during the period of intended pregnancyX2as the two risk variables of TTP) was also established.Base on the estimations of the model B,the CPP within 1-3,4-6,and 7-12 months were 60.41%,84.46%,and 93.96% for the women exposed to X1,61.86%,85.58%,and 94.61% for the women exposed to X2,and 56.46%,81.20%,and 91.95% for the women exposed to both X1 and X2; while for the women exposed to neither X1 nor X2,the estimated CPP within 1-3,4-6,and 7-12 months were 56.46%,81.20%,and 91.95%,respectively.Conclusion DTR model is a reasonable statistical technique for analysis of data on TTP,with the ability to identify risk factors and estimate CPP values under different covariates at given time intervals.

     

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