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刘帅, 宋国君. PM2.5日平均浓度与死亡率剂量-反应关系meta分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 14-17. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-04
引用本文: 刘帅, 宋国君. PM2.5日平均浓度与死亡率剂量-反应关系meta分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 14-17. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-04
LIU Shuai, SONG Guo-jun. Dose-response relationship between daily PM2.5 concentration and mortality rate: a meta-analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 14-17. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-04
Citation: LIU Shuai, SONG Guo-jun. Dose-response relationship between daily PM2.5 concentration and mortality rate: a meta-analysis[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 14-17. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-04

PM2.5日平均浓度与死亡率剂量-反应关系meta分析

Dose-response relationship between daily PM2.5 concentration and mortality rate: a meta-analysis

  • 摘要: 目的 探讨PM2.5日平均浓度与死亡率的“剂量-反应”关系,为评估严重雾霾天气对居民健康造成的影响提供科学依据。方法 全面收集PM2.5日平均浓度与死亡率“剂量-反应”关系的相关研究;应用Stata 12.0软件采用倒方差赋权法对PM2.5短期致死效应进行meta分析。结果 最终纳入11篇文献(中文文献1篇,英文文献10篇),包括上海、西安、北京、沈阳、广州、重庆6个城市13个分析样本的数据;meta分析结果显示,在PM2.5日平均浓度上升10 μg/m3的情况下,人群死亡率较基期水平上升了0.37%(95%CI=0.26%~0.48%);亚组分析结果显示,PM2.5日平均浓度较高地区(PM2.5≥75 μg/m3)PM2.5日平均浓度上升10 μg/m3,人群死亡率较基期水平上升0.33%(95%CI=0.20%~0.46%),PM2.5日平均浓度较低地区(PM2.5<75 μg/m3)PM2.5日平均浓度上升10 μg/m3,人群死亡率较基期水平上升0.50%(95%CI=0.36%~0.63%);在气温较高地区(南方城市)PM2.5日平均浓度上升10 μg/m3,人群死亡率较基期水平上升0.51%(95%CI=0.32%~0.69%),在气温较低地区(北方城市)PM2.5日平均浓度上升10 μg/m3,人群死亡率较基期水平上升0.35%(95%CI=0.23%~0.47%)。结论 PM2.5日平均浓度的上升会在短期内造成人群死亡率的上升。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate dose-response relationship between daily concentration of particulate matter <2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) and daily mortality rate and to provide a scientific basis for evaluating health impact of severe fog and haze.Methods Domestic epidemiological studies on PM2.5 and mortality were collected with systematically searching through China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI),PubMed Database and Elsevier Science Direct Database.Stata 12.0 software was adopted to conduct a meta-analysis on short-time impact of PM2.5 on mortality using inverse variance (I-V) weighting method.Results A total of 11 literatures (one published in Chinese and 10 in English) were finally extracted,including 13 studies in six cities (Shanghai,Xi'an,Beijing,Shenyang,Guangzhou,and Chongqing).The results of meta-analysis show that a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5 concentration is related to a 0.37% (95% confidence interval95% CI:0.26%-0.48%) increase in daily mortality rate.Subgroup analyses show that a 10 μg/m3 increase in daily PM2.5 is related to a 0.33%(95%CI=0.20%-0.46%) increase in daily mortality rate under the condition of relative higher average daily PM2.5 ≥75 μg/m3;while under the average daily PM2.5 concentration of <75 μg/m3,a 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 increase is related to a 0.50%(95%CI=0.36%-0.63%)daily mortality rate increase. The results of subgroup analysis also show that under a relative higher ambient temperature (in Southern China),a 10 μg/m3 PM2.5 increase is related to a 0.51%(95%CI=0.32%-0.69%) daily mortality rate increase,but the same increase in PM2.5 is related to a 0.35%(95%CI=0.23%-0.47%)increase in daily mortality rate under a relative lower ambient temperature (in Northern China).Conclusion Increase in PM2.5 concentration may relate to short-term increase in daily mortality rate among urban populations.

     

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