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王丽君, 宇传华, 张志将, 燕虹. 中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡趋势分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-11
引用本文: 王丽君, 宇传华, 张志将, 燕虹. 中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡趋势分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-11
WANG Li-jun, YU Chuan-hua, ZHANG Zhi-jiang.et al, . Trend in lung cancer mortality among residents in China: 1987-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-11
Citation: WANG Li-jun, YU Chuan-hua, ZHANG Zhi-jiang.et al, . Trend in lung cancer mortality among residents in China: 1987-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 42-46. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-11

中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡趋势分析

Trend in lung cancer mortality among residents in China: 1987-2014

  • 摘要: 目的 分析中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡的时间变化趋势。方法 汇总中国居民1987-2014年肺癌死亡率数据,利用Joinpoint模型估算各年龄组人群肺癌死亡率的时间变化趋势,负二项回归模型探索肺癌死亡在人群水平上的危险因素。结果 肺癌死亡的风险比值,城市居民是农村居民的1.43倍(95%CI=1.35~1.50,P<0.01),男性是女性的2.28倍(95%CI=2.17~2.41,P<0.01),每增加5岁,肺癌死亡风险平均增大62%(OR=1.62,95%CI=1.60~1.63,P<0.01),每过一年平均增大1%(OR=1.01,95%CI=1.00~1.01,P<0.01);农村居民肺癌中标死亡率上升明显男性死亡率年度变化百分比(APC)=2.58%,女性APC=2.54%:P<0.01,城市女性略有下降(APC=-0.74%,P<0.01),城市男性无明显趋势(APC=-0.23%,P=0.11);城市居民在20~74岁肺癌死亡率逐年下降,≥75岁逐年上升;农村低龄组居民无明显下降趋势,农村男性≥40岁、农村女性≥50岁呈明显上升趋势。结论 中国肺癌死亡率的变化趋势有年龄差异;农村地区肺癌死亡率逐年增加。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze epidemical features,distribution and time trend of lung cancer deaths among Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014.Methods Lung cancer mortality data for Chinese residents from 1987 to 2014 were aggregated.Negative binomial regression model was used to explore population-level risk factors of lung cancer death and joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in lung cancer mortality of various populations.Results The lung cancer death risks were higher in urban residents than in rural residents (odds ratioOR=1.43,95% confidence interval95%CI=1.35-1.50; P<0.01) and in male residents than in female residents (OR=2.28,95%CI=2.17-2.41; P<0.01).A 5-year increment in age was associated with a 62% increased lung cancer mortality (OR=1.62,95%CI=1.60-1.63; P<0.01) and a one year increment in calendar year was related to a 1% increased mortality (OR=1.01,95%CI=1.00-1.01; P<0.01).A markedly rising trend in age-standardized lung cancer mortality was observed among rural residents,with the annual percent change (APC) of 2.58% and 2.54% among male and female rural residents (both P<0.01); whereas,a slightly falling but significant trend in the age-standardized mortality in urban female residents (APC=-0.74%,P<0.01) and an unsignificant falling trend in urban male residents (APC=-0.23%,P=0.11) were observed.The age-specific lung cancer mortality rate decreased yearly for the urban residents aged 25-75 years but increased for those aged ≥75 years; the age-specific mortality rate also increased yearly for the rural male residents aged ≥40 years and the female residents aged ≥ 50 years and no significant variation in the age-specific mortality rate was observed in the rural residents of other age groups.Conclusion There was a significant gender difference in secular trend of lung cancer mortality among Chinese residents and lung cancer mortality increased yearly among rural residents in China.

     

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