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张人杰, 李娜, 王臻, 李傅东, 刘碧瑶. 浙江省2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 70-73. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-17
引用本文: 张人杰, 李娜, 王臻, 李傅东, 刘碧瑶. 浙江省2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 70-73. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-17
ZHANG Ren-jie, LI Na, WANG Zhen.et al, . Spatial autocorrelation of human H7N9 avian influenza incidents in Zhejiang Province,2013-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 70-73. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-17
Citation: ZHANG Ren-jie, LI Na, WANG Zhen.et al, . Spatial autocorrelation of human H7N9 avian influenza incidents in Zhejiang Province,2013-2014[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 70-73. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-17

浙江省2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例空间自相关分析

Spatial autocorrelation of human H7N9 avian influenza incidents in Zhejiang Province,2013-2014

  • 摘要: 目的 了解浙江省2013-2014年人感染H7N9禽流感病例的时空分布模式,为疫情的有效防控和预警提供科学依据。方法 收集2013年1月-2014年12月浙江省传染病疫情直报系统中人感染H7N9禽流感病例数据,应用ArcGIS 10.0软件分析病例分布的趋势和聚集性,并预测区域发病风险。结果 浙江省2013-2014年共报告140例人感染H7N9禽流感病例,分别于2013年3-4月(45例)和2014年1-2月(84例)出现2个疫情高峰;全局自相关分析结果显示,2014年病例分布的聚集性(I=0.51,Z=6.48,P<0.001)较2013年病例分布的聚集性(I=0.27,Z=5.93,P<0.001)有所增强;热点分析结果显示,2013年人感染H7N9禽流感的热点区域主要分布在浙江省中北部的杭州市区、余杭区、萧山区、富阳市、德清县、海宁市等6个地区(Z≥1.96),2014年热点区域范围进一步扩大至安吉县、柯城区、宁波市区、慈溪市、余姚市等5个地区(Z≥1.96);趋势面分析结果显示,人感染H7N9禽流感发病在东西方向上呈先升高后降低趋势,在南北方向上呈逐步上升趋势;空间回归分析结果显示,人感染H7N9禽流感病例数与人口密度和纬度有关(均P<0.05),纬度越高、人口密度越大,出现病例的数量越多;协同克里金插值法预测结果显示,浙江省中北部地区以及东部沿海部分地区出现疫情的概率较高,与病例空间分布较为一致。结论 浙江省人感染H7N9禽流感的发病在时间和空间尺度均有明显空间聚集性,以冬春季节和浙江北部地区的疫情较为严重。

     

    Abstract: Objective To investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of human H7N9 avian influenza cases in Zhejiang province during 2013-2014 and to provide evidences for prevention and control of the disease.Methods Data on reported human avian influenza incidents in Zhejiang province from January 2013 through December 2014 were collected from Infectious Disease Reporting System of Zhejiang Province and analyzed with ArcGIS 10.0 to describe spatial distribution and aggregation of the incidents.Results Totally 140 human H7N9 infections were reported and two incident peaks from March to May in 2013 and from January to February in 2014 were observed during the period in the province.Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the degree of the incidents aggregation in 2014 (I=0.51,Z=6.48,P<0.001) was stronger than in 2013 (I=0.27,Z=5.93,P<0.001);Getis-Ord statistics showed that the hotspots of the epidemics located mainly in north central area of Zhejiang province (Hangzhou city,Yuhang,Xiaoshan,Fuyang,Deqing,and HainingZ≥1.96) in 2013 and then expanded to Anji,Kecheng,Ningbo,Cixi,and Yuyao (Z ≥ 1.96) in 2014.Trend surface was established for the human avian H7N9 influenza incidents,showing that the incidence increased from east to central area then decreased from central area to the west and declined from north to south.Spatial autocorrelation analysis suggested that the number of incidents was correlated with population density and latitude (P<0.05);the prediction map for the epidemic generated by Co-Kriking method fits well with the actual incidents.Conclusion The spatial and temporal distribution of human H7N9 avian influenza incidents in Zhejiang province were highly clustered and the epidemics were severer from winter to spring in northern area.

     

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