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李镒冲, 赵寅君. PSU数量与入样比对抽样误差近似估计和统计推断影响[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 162-165. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-43
引用本文: 李镒冲, 赵寅君. PSU数量与入样比对抽样误差近似估计和统计推断影响[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(1): 162-165. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-43
LI Yi-chong, ZHAO Yin-jun. Effect of number and sampling fraction of primary sampling unit on sampling error approximation and statistical inference[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 162-165. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-43
Citation: LI Yi-chong, ZHAO Yin-jun. Effect of number and sampling fraction of primary sampling unit on sampling error approximation and statistical inference[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(1): 162-165. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-01-43

PSU数量与入样比对抽样误差近似估计和统计推断影响

Effect of number and sampling fraction of primary sampling unit on sampling error approximation and statistical inference

  • 摘要: 目的 了解初级抽样单元(PSU)数量与入样比对抽样误差近似估计和统计推断的影响,为今后调查的抽样设计提供参考。方法 收集2010年中国慢性病及其危险因素监测中的98 587条收缩压测量数据开展二阶段模拟抽样;采用泰勒级数线性化法估计每个样本在考虑有限总体校正(FPC)和不考虑FPC情况下的均值、标准误及95%可信区间,比较估计的标准误和真实标准误间差异,分析不同设计下95%可信区间包含总体均值参数的概率。结果 PSU个数增加至10个时,抽样误差迅速从4.13 mmHg降到1.91 mmHg,下降了53.8%,但PSU个数增加至≥20个时,估计精度未见明显提升;在考虑FPC情况下,随着PSU入样比的增加,均值95%可信区间覆盖真值的概率波动较大:入样比<30%时,95%可信区间覆盖真值概率在94.0%上下波动;入样比>30%时,95%可信区间覆盖真值的概率呈现出震荡下降的趋势,最低到达88.2%,统计推断较敏感;在不考虑FPC情况下,95%可信区间覆盖真值概率均较考虑FPC情况高,在PSU入样比>20%时,95%可信区间覆盖真值概率较入样比<20%时出现了一个小幅跃升,统计推断较保守。结论 PSU数量的确定需同时考虑估计精度和调查可行性;PSU入样比过大时,应慎重使用基于误差近似估计的统计推断。

     

    Abstract: Objective To examine how number and sampling fraction of primary sampling unit (PSU) affect sampling error estimation and statistical inference with approximation method.Methods We used systolic blood pressure measurements of 98 587 respondents from the 2010 China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance Survey as study population to conduct a two-stage sampling simulation.We adopted Taylor's series linearization to estimate sampling error of mean and 95%confidence interval (95%CI),with or without finite population correction (FPC).For each design,the estimated sampling error was compared with the true sampling error,and the probability that population mean covered by 95%CI was determined.Results Sampling error declined rapidly from 4.13 mm Hg to 1.91 mm Hg by 53.8%while the number of PSU increased from 2 to 10,but declined mildly if number of PSU was getting more than 20.With consideration of FPC,probability of estimated 95%CIs covering the parameter fluctuated with increase of PSU sampling fraction:when sampling fraction<30%,the probability of 95%CIs covering the parameter was around 94.0%;when sampling fraction increased to>30%,the probability of 95%CIs covering the parameter decreased to 88.2%,leading to a sensitive statistical inference.In the situation of without FPC,the probability of 95%CIs covering the parameter was higher than that estimation with FPC.The probability of 95%CIs covering the parameter went up when PSU sampling fraction increased to>20%,leading to a conservative statistical inference.Conclusion Number of PSU should be determined with acceptable variation of the estimates and feasibility of the survey.Caution should be exercised when estimating sampling error using approximation method with considerable sampling fraction of PSU.

     

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