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朱博文, 倪蕴嘉, 庄勋. AIDS疫情估计方法研究进展[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(6): 1028-1032. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-06-43
引用本文: 朱博文, 倪蕴嘉, 庄勋. AIDS疫情估计方法研究进展[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(6): 1028-1032. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-06-43
ZHU Bo-wen, NI Yun-jia, ZHUANG Xun. Research progress in method for AIDS epidemic estimation[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(6): 1028-1032. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-06-43
Citation: ZHU Bo-wen, NI Yun-jia, ZHUANG Xun. Research progress in method for AIDS epidemic estimation[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(6): 1028-1032. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-06-43

AIDS疫情估计方法研究进展

Research progress in method for AIDS epidemic estimation

  • 摘要: 自1981年美国首次报告艾滋病(AIDS)病例以来,AIDS已成为全球不可忽视的公共卫生问题。目前最常用的AIDS疫情估计方法主要有反向计算法(back calculation method)、组分法(component model)、德尔菲(Delphi)法、工作簿(Workbook)法、亚洲流行模型(AEM)、估计与预测软件包(EPP)模型和Spectrum等。中国AIDS疫情较为复杂,各省的疫情也有其各自的特点。本文对目前最常用的AIDS疫情估计方法的结构原理、所需指标、产出结果、应用、以及优缺点等方面进行综述。

     

    Abstract: Since the first report of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) case in the United States in 1981,AIDS has become a global public health issue which can not be neglected.At present,the approaches commonly used to estimate AIDS epidemic include back calculation method,component model,Delphi method,Workbook method,Asian epidemic model,prediction software package model,and Spectrum model.The AIDS epidemic in China is very complex,and the epidemic in each province has its own characteristics.This article summerizes the structure and principle,required index,output results,application as well as advantages and disadvantages of the estimation and prediction methods most commonly used for AIDS epidemic.

     

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