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贾丽军, 于石成, 胡跃华, 徐成东, 冯国双, 么鸿雁, 李旭东, 刘韫宁. 多水平模型在肝癌死亡病例与关联因素生态学分析中应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(7): 1033-1037. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-07-01
引用本文: 贾丽军, 于石成, 胡跃华, 徐成东, 冯国双, 么鸿雁, 李旭东, 刘韫宁. 多水平模型在肝癌死亡病例与关联因素生态学分析中应用[J]. 中国公共卫生, 2017, 33(7): 1033-1037. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-07-01
JIA Li-jun, YU Shi-cheng, HU Yue-hua.et al, . Application of multilevel model to ecological study on liver cancer deaths and associated factors[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(7): 1033-1037. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-07-01
Citation: JIA Li-jun, YU Shi-cheng, HU Yue-hua.et al, . Application of multilevel model to ecological study on liver cancer deaths and associated factors[J]. Chinese Journal of Public Health, 2017, 33(7): 1033-1037. DOI: 10.11847/zgggws2017-33-07-01

多水平模型在肝癌死亡病例与关联因素生态学分析中应用

Application of multilevel model to ecological study on liver cancer deaths and associated factors

  • 摘要: 目的 分析肝癌死亡病例的生态学关联因素,为卫生行政部门了解肝癌死亡病例的关联因素、合理配置卫生资源提供依据。方法 利用全国疾病监测系统161个死因监测点的肝癌死亡监测资料、乙肝和丙肝报告发病数据、乙肝血清流行病学调查数据、全国行为危险因素调查数据和有关社会经济指标,采用三水平超Poisson方差模型,以肝癌死亡病例作为第一水平,161个区县作为第二水平,省(自治区、直辖市)作为第三水平,分析肝癌死亡病例的生态学关联因素;应用SAS 9.4和MLwiN 2.30软件,进行单因素和多因素分析,拟合三水平超Poisson方差随机截距模型。结果 同省(自治区、直辖市)不同性别、年龄组间的肝癌死亡率不同,且年龄组间肝癌死亡率的差异在不同性别间也不同,性别与年龄之间存在交互作用;多水平模型在三、二水平的随机截距均有统计学意义,即肝癌死亡在不同省(自治区、直辖市)、不同区县水平上差异均有统计学意义;多因素分析结果显示,在岗职工平均工资、乙肝表面抗原阳性率、乙肝发病率、丙肝发病率、性别、年龄、性别与年龄交互项与肝癌死亡病例之间存在独立的生态学关联关系。结论 在岗职工平均工资高与肝癌死亡病例呈负关联关系;乙肝表面抗原阳性率、乙肝和丙肝报告发病率与肝癌死亡病例呈正关联关系;男性、高年龄组与肝癌死亡病例呈正关联关系。

     

    Abstract: Objective To analyze ecological associated factors of liver cancer deaths and to provide evidences for rational allocation of health resources by health administrators.Methods The study involved 161 counties or districts across China covered by National Disease Surveillance System.The collected data include:liver cancer mortality,hepatitis B and hepatitis C incidence,prevalence of hepatitis B virus (HBV) serological markers,prevalence of behavior risk factors,and relevant social and economic indicators.A three-level extra-Poisson variance model (liver cancer deaths as the first level,161 study sites as the second level,and the province/autonomous region/municipality directly under the central government as the third level) was adopted to analyze ecological factors associated with liver cancer deaths.SAS 9.4 and MLwiN 2.30 software were used in statistical analyses;the three-level extra-Poisson variance random intercept model was fitted.Results There were gender and between age differences in liver cancer mortality and interactive effect of age and gender on liver cancer mortality for the counties or districts in a same province/autonomous region/municipality.The random intercept of multilevel model was of statistical significance at county/district level and province/autonomous region/municipality level,suggesting that there were significant difference in liver cancer mortality between counties or districts and between provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities.The results of multiple factors analysis revealed that liver cancer mortality was independently and ecologically associated with average wage of on-the-job workers,the prevalence of HBV surface antigen (HBsAg),reported incidence rate of hepatitis B,reported incidence rate of hepatitis C,gender,age,and the interaction between gender and age.Conclusion Higher average wage of on-the-job workers is reversely correlated with liver cancer mortaltiy;while prevalence rate of HBsAg,reported incidence rate of hepatitis B and hepatitis C,male gender,and elder age are positively correlated with liver cancer mortality.

     

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