Detection of individuals at high risk of cardiovascular diseases and construction of a high risk prediction model among 35 – 75 years old residents in Shunyi district, Beijing

  Objective   To examine the proportion of people at high risk of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) among 35 – 75 years old community residents in Shunyi district of Beijing and to construct a prediction model of CVD risk for providing references to CVD prevention and control.

  Methods   Using stratified random sampling, we recruited 16 520 permanent community residents aged 35 – 75 years in Shunyi district of Beijing. A questionnaire survey and physical examination were conducted to detect individuals at high CVD risk among the residents from March 2017 to October 2019. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was adopted to construct a model for predicting high CVD risk and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the efficacy of the prediction model.

  Results   Of the 16 279 participants completing the survey and examination, 22.84% (3 718) were assessed with a high CVD risk. Compared to those in the participants not with high CVD risk, significantly higher body mass index (BMI, 27.06 ± 3.62 vs. 26.40 ± 3.60 kg/m²), systolic blood pressure (SBP, 158.46 ± 19.39 vs. 131.70 ± 14.18 mm Hg), diastolic blood pressure (DBP, 90.36 ± 12.38 vs. 79.94 ± 9.05 mm Hg), fasting blood glucose (FPG, 6.78 ± 1.96 vs. 6.27 ± 1.58 mmol/L), total cholesterol (TC, 4.92 ± 1.28 vs. 4.63 ± 0.91 mmol/L), triglyceride (TG, 1.78 ± 1.03 vs. 1.59 ± 0.93 mmol/L), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C, 2.86 ± 1.15 vs. 2.46 ± 0.73) were detected in the participants at high CVD risk (all P < 0.001). Unconditional multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the risk factors for with high CVD risk include aged ≥ 40 years and smoking; while, female gender, with the education of college and above, engaged in business or service industry or being private owners, having an average annual income of more than 50 000 yuan RMB, and living in the east or central part of Shunyi district are protective factors against high CVD risk. The constructed model for high CVD risk prediction is expressed as following: Y = – 19.315 + 0.013 × age + 0.009 × education level – 0.005 × annual family income + 0.113 × male gender + 1 × female gender + 0.358 × farmer + 0.576 × worker + 0.718 × administrative/professional and technical personnel + 0.037 × private owners/other personnel + 0.439 × retired/unemployed/domestic workers + business/service personnel + 0.327 × living in western Shunyi – 0.027 × living in central Shunyi + 1 × eastern Shunyi + 0.223 × smoking + 0.009 × BMI + 0.098 × SBP + 0.028 × DBP. The area under the ROC curve of the prediction model is 0.874 (95% confidence interval: 0.866 – 0.882), indicating a good prediction efficacy of the model.

  Conclusion   The proportion of 35 – 75 years old community residents with high CVD risk is relatively low in Shunyi district of Beijing. A model for high CVD risk prediction with a good prediction efficacy was constructed.