Objective To construct an index system for the evaluation on health system resilience in the context of catastrophic medical surge and to provide references for improving medical institutions′ disaster risk management capability in China.
Methods An entropy theory-based framework of the index system was primarily constructed through literature studies; then an online Delphi consultation was conducted among 31 domestic experts with at least ten years′ experiences in health emergency management/disaster medicine-related research/teaching/administration during September – November, 2020. Saaty′s weight method was adopted to calculate weight coefficients of the indexes in the evaluation system.
Results The positive coefficient was 81.6% for the expert consultation; for the first-, second-, and third-level indicators included in the evaluation system, the authoritative coefficients were 0.89, 0.76, and 0.85 and the coordination coefficients were 0.352, 0.301, and 0.260, respectively (all P < 0.05). The finally established evaluation index system included 2 first-, 9 second-, and 35 third-level indicators. The first-level indicator with the highest weight coefficient (0.7500) was for the balance between a health system′s supply capacity and the demand of a catastrophic medical surge; the second-level indicator with the highest weight coefficient (0.4476) was for emergency medical services; and the third-level indicator with the highest weight coefficient (0.0799) was for the professional resources of intensive care unit against the demand of a catastrophic medical surge.
Conclusion The established index system for the evaluation on health system resilience in the context of catastrophic medical surge is valid and reliable and could be preliminarily used in promoting public health risk management capability in China.
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