Predicting demand of informal care for disabled elderly in China – a review on research progress

With the acceleration of population aging process, the dependency ratio of the elderly is gradually rising, the function of family care is weakening, and informal care presents an imbalance between supply and demand in China. More and more scholars have carried out studies on predicting the population size of disabled elderly, the intensity and cost of informal care in China, but there is a lack of systematic generalization. This study summarizes research methods and prediction content of informal care through literature research and comparative analysis, providing a basis for comprehensive demand prediction. Currently in China, researches on informal care focus on macrosimulation approach, with a deficit in comprehensive application of macrosimulation and microsimulation approach, and the involved models are not accurate enough. In terms of the prediction content, the researches are mainly devoted to the prediction of care cost but rarely to the prediction of care intensity and source. Therefore, future researches should concern with in-depth exploration of care intensity, care source and care cost, and comprehensively use macrosimulation and microsimulation approach to improve the accuracy and comprehensiveness of prediction models.