Predictive Assessment of Death Rate of Malignant Cancer at Area of D Lake

Objective To study the relation of the death rate of malignant cancer and water pollutants at the area of D lake.Methods Using the grey systemic analysis.Results The grey systemic forecast models of the death rate of malignant cancer are made on the basis of grey incidence analysis.The forecast model of cancer mortality includes one mortality model of Nvariables first order differential equation,GM(1,N):MR(t+1)=(9.9987E₁+5.0001E₂+10.8994E₃+1.1114E₄+165.1029).e^-0.0070t-9.9987E₁-5.0001E₂-10.8994E₃-1.1114E₄ and N-1 factor models of one variables first or der differ ential equation,G M(1,1)group:E₁(t+1)=-46.9468e^-0.0058t+52.1214,E₂(t+1)=4.6114-4.5664e^0.0015t,E₃(t+1)=1.1389-1.1212e^0.0065t,E₄(t+1)=554.5867-549.8006e^0.0016t.The mortality GM(1,N)model and the factors GM(1,1)model group are used for forecasting the changing trend of the death rate of malignant cancer from 2000 to 2010.Conclusion At the area of D lake,the death rate of malignant cancer has atrend of decreasing from 2000 to 2010.