HIV/AIDS dynamic model in drug users in a certain region

  Objective   To constructhIV/AIDS dynamic model in drug users in a certain region and to predict the near future.

  Methods   HIV/AIDS dynamic model in drugusers was built based on the prevalence and behavior parameters of the surveillance data in 2001~2004.According to this model, people living with HIV and AIDS, new HIV and AIDS in the end of 2005 were predicted based on the current parameter.And sensitivity of parameters was analyzed.

  Results   On the basis of the current parameter, people living with HIV and AIDS will reach 2 982 and 277 in the end of 2005.In the second surveillance period(October to November)in 2005 the prevalence in drug user will reach 13.2%.Parameters sensitivity analysis showed that transmit probability by sharing needle, injecting number per unit time and sharing probability were the most sensitive parameters.

  Conclusion   Sterilizing the needling, decreasing the injecting frequency and less probability of sharing needle with others are taken to control epidemic in drug users.